Wild -fires can be a double bite for the shaky budget of CA

Three weeks ago Gavard Gavin Newo suggested a $ 322 billion state budget For the fiscal year, which begins on July 1, emphasizing that it will be balanced without new taxes and will have “Modest” $ 463 million excessS

The last issue is only one -tenth of 1% of the total budget, which makes us wonder how Newsom budget writers could calculate it so accurately. It can be pulled out of thin air, so the first budget project can be presented as balanced.

In fact, his alleged balance suggests that at least $ 11 billion dollars adhesions of emergency reserves, accounting tricks and loans outside the books can be reported as revenue. So, with its own numbers, the proposed budget actually flows red ink.

In addition, the budget is already scrap paper, as the deadly fires that wept in Southern California, as they have been exempt, will cover tax revenue while imposing huge new financial burdens. Thehe 2.5 billion dollars hastily assumed by the legislature is just an advance payment for what the state may have to spend on suppression and restoration of fire.

That would be true even if president Donald Trump They have delivered billions of dollars to federal disaster aid that Newsom and other employees are looking for. During his Visit to the stage of fire last weekTrump has promised to help the region recover and propose the state to change some of its environmental and immigration policies in return.

If federal aid is not forthcoming or is significantly less than sought, the impact on government finances – both in case of loss of revenue and for new expenses – can be huge, potentially covering all the state’s emergency reserves and then and then some.

A note contains a hint of the potential impact that Joe Stevenshow, Financial Officer of California, sent to heads of state agencies last week, mainly, mainly, mainly Telling them to stifle any hopes for new or advanced programsS

Stephenshow told employees that “recent devastating fires in southern California have led to a delay in the Federal Government’s tax submission to Los Angeles and Ventura districts until November 15, introducing a level of uncertainty in the revenue forecast.”

Referring to the “projected structural deficits in the future years and the fiscal uncertainty with which the state continues to collide”, he said the state would remain within the “load budget” defined as the current level of permitted costs, adjusted only for Such inevitable factors as inflation, loads and federal or judicial requirements.

The phrase “predicts a structural deficit in the future years” refers to the calculations of both Stepenshaw employees and the budget analyzer of the legislature, Gabe Peak, that no matter how the budget for 2025-26, the state collides with the annual multimillion-dollars Obligations between income and output, the state faces annual gaps of multi -million dollars between income and income, the state is facing annual gaps in multi -dollars between income and surveillance, the state is facing annual gaps of multi -class dollars between income between income between income The income and the surveillance, the state is facing annual gaps of multi -million dollars between income and surveillance, the state is facing annual gaps in multi -million dollars between income and surveillance after the NEWSOM manager has ended two years.

Petek sees an annual deficit in the range of $ 25-30 billion in the future, while the administration’s estimated disadvantages are in the range of $ 15-20 billion. Nor does it involve the potentially massive revenue and the impact of fire costs.

Friday and His initial budget analysisHe also warns that the latest news taxes on Newsom income, cited in his budget, “are on a shaken basis.”

“These profits are not linked to improvements in the broader economy of the country, which is more glorious, with increased unemployment, a stagnant labor market outside the government and slow consumer expenses,” Petek noted. “Instead, the profits look largely bound by the thriving stock market, a situation that can change quickly and without warning.”

Thehe Collapse in artificial intelligence reserves This week, he is copying Petek’s exhortation.

California is facing budget crises before, but it can be the perfect storm of a chronically unbalanced budget, worsening infinitely worse than disaster.