What countries and regions may be affected by the asteroid 2024 yr4?

The asteroid 2024 yr4, It is approximately 40 to 100 meters, close to Earth in December 2032 – and may strike the planet. Due to its size, speed and impact, the Internet gave her the title of “city destroyer”.

Main space agencies, such as European Space AgencyThe values ​​that there are about 2 percent of the opportunity that will be hit by 2024 years 4, although this risk number will be updated as scientists learn more about the asteroid path. Although it is likely to be asteroid The Earth will lose, sites that can be affected by collision are already determined.

The destructive potential of 2024 YR4 depends on its composition, speed and mass. Since the asteroid is still far away, these characteristics can only be estimated, so the consequences of the strike are also somewhat inaccurate predictions at this stage. Currently, astronomers believe that the year 2024 YR4 will create an air-or explosion in the air-the effect equivalent to approximately 8 million tons of TNT, or 500 times the strength of the atomic bomb that was dropped on Hiroshima. This explosion will affect a radius of about 50 km around the impact location.

For the collision site, some experts, such as David Ranken, an engineer with Nassa Catalina Sky Survey project, drawing “risk corridor”. According to the current track of the asteroid, and if the probability of 2 percent becomes a reality, the asteroid must fall somewhere in a group of lands extending from South South America, across the Pacific Ocean, to South Asia, the Arabian Sea, and Africa. Countries like India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Sudan, Nigeria, Venezuela, Colombia and Ecuador are in danger.

The threat posed by asteroids and comets that can strike the ground on 11 Turin scale pointsThe higher the result, the greater the risk of affecting the object of the travel space on the ground and causing large amounts of destruction. The asteroid 2024 YR4 is ranked 3th in level 3, which means that it is large enough and will pass near the merit that is carefully monitored. However, most international agencies are sure that the risk level will decrease over time to scratch as the asteroid’s path becomes more clear. Initially, the possibility of effect was 1.2 percent. Then it was modified to 2.3 percent, before the last evaluation reduces the risk to 2 percent.

This is not the first time that this alert has been raised, and it is not monitored more as a dangerous space object. asteroid ApophisAnd discovered in 2004, sometimes, recorded above 2024 years on both Turin scale and the possibility of collision. Soon after his discovery, she was given a 2.7 percent chance to hit the Earth. However, after a few months and with better notes, scientists have amended their accounts on more realistic values. Now, although it will pass near Earth in 2029, the chances of collision are zero.

In response to 2024 YR4, the United Nations activated the emergency protocol to protect the planet. Currently, given that the asteroid at level 3 of the Turin scale, this is limited to continuous monitoring of the asteroid’s movements.

Tables are also developed to protect the Earth from asteroids with devastating capabilities. These include kinetic strikes, where the missiles are sent to space for a collision with asteroids, to convert them from the collision path with the Earth. NASA 2023 dart It has been proven that such strikes can be launched and that it can transport space objects, by testing this technique on a harmless asteroid called Dimorphos.

This story was originally appeared on Wireless in Spanish It was translated from Spanish.