Trump’s federal gas tax holiday is unlikely to bring prices down

Also gas prices Fuel prices remain stubbornly high across the country, and President Donald Trump this week considered suspending the fuel tax paid by American consumers. The idea is also gaining traction in Congress, where Democratic and Republican lawmakers are pushing for a gas tax exemption.

But any rollback — even temporary — of the fees is unlikely to save consumers much as the unofficial start of the summer travel season approaches, experts tell WIRED.

“Oil prices, gasoline prices and diesel prices are unlikely to fall to where they were in February at any time over the next two months,” says Clark Williams Deary, an analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.

The Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important shipping routes and a transit point for oil and gas supplies and production. It remained virtually closed Since early March, when the United States and Israel launched the first strikes against Iran.

The average price of gasoline across the country was $4.53 per gallon as of Thursday, up from $4.12 a month ago and $3.18 a year ago. According to AAA. This includes the federal gas tax, which is just over 18 cents per gallon. Trump cannot suspend the gas tax on his own, as it would require an action from Congress. (The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.) The tax, created in 1932, was never suspended. But politicians from both parties have introduced a variety of bills this year that would temporarily raise federal taxes.

Even if the tax is suspended in the summer, drivers won’t necessarily see much savings. Prices at the pump are determined by a number of different factors, from refining costs to gas station operating costs. Oil prices also fluctuated wildly, with Brent crude — a leading index — rising to an all-time high of $144 a barrel on the night of April 7, when Trump and the Iranian government brokered a two-week ceasefire. It is currently around $105 per barrel, well above the $105 per barrel level middle $69 in 2025.

Inflation is driven by high fuel prices and shortages of basic commodities that depend on oil as their main input Fertilizersall over the world is making life more expensive for Americans. In April, the Consumer Price Index – used to measure inflation – was 1 An increase of 3.8 percent Year after year. With rising costs for everything from food and rent to airline tickets, saving 18 cents doesn’t add up to much in the long run.

“When the retail gas tax is eliminated, it won’t have much of an impact (for consumers),” says Tyson Slocum, director of the energy program at the progressive think tank Public Citizen. “But what would be dramatic is the loss of federal revenue.”

The federal gas tax funds the Highway Trust Fund, which was formed to supports Highway maintenance and mass transit projects. This box was already facing Severe bankruptcy Issues even before proposals to raise the federal gas tax. Williams Deere points out that many roads in the United States are “literally dilapidated:” Nearly 40% of the nation’s highways and roads are in need of repair, according to a 2025 survey. Found. He says already low taxes are the main driver of poor infrastructure.

Cutting revenues, even temporarily, will only exacerbate the problem. There is also the possibility that the pause could be extended indefinitely given the political risks of reinstating it, especially with the midterm elections looming.

“Losing the federal revenue available to ensure our transportation infrastructure remains intact is not a good deal for consumers,” Slocum says.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz suddenly cut off a huge amount of the world’s oil supply from the market in what is widely agreed to be one of the worst energy crises in history. Even if the Strait of Hormuz opens immediately tomorrow, the effects of the new supplies could take some time to reach consumers – likely a month or more as tankers travel to customers and production facilities start up again.

“An oil tanker moves as fast as a bicycle,” Williams-Derry says. “It’s an important trip.”