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Karen Short, the environment scientist Research in the service of forests that contributed to the study and maintains a historical database of national fire reports, says that understanding the reason they started to prevent them and educate the public. It seems that strategic prevention is working: According to the National Fire Protection Association, home fires have decreased in the United States Almost half since the 1980s.
In 2024, Short Archive expanded her forest fires to include more useful information for investigators, such as weather, height, population density and fire timing. “We need to take these things in the data to follow over time. She said,” We are still following things from the twentieth century. “
According to the palaces, the trends of wildfires have turned throughout the western United States with human activity. In recent decades, the burning lines of power lines, fireworks and firearms have become more common, unlike fires caused by the railway and the bulletin that were common again.
The study found that vehicles and equipment are likely to be the first perpetrator, which may cause 21 percent of forest fires without a known reason since 1992. Last fall, Airport fire In California was such an event, as it burned more than 23,000 acres. An increasing number of fires is the result of intentional burning and accidental ignition – whether smoking, shooting or camps fire – which make up another 18 percent. In 2017, the choice of a couple from Arizona for blue fireworks from smoke for the sex of the child lit up. Fire bulletinEast of approximately 47,000 acres.
But these results are not final. Machine learning models such as those used to study are trained to predict the possibility of a specific fire cause, rather than proving a specific ignition. Although the study model showed 90 percent accuracy between lightning or human activity as a source of ignition when tested on fires with known reasons, he was facing more difficulty in identifying any of 11 potential human behavior that was blaming, only in half the time.
Yavar Pourmohamad, PhD Researcher at Data Science at the University of Boise State, says that knowing the possible causes of fire can help authorities warn people in areas at risk before the fire already begin. “People can give a hint of what is most important to be careful,” he said. “Perhaps in the future, artificial intelligence can become a trustworthy tool to work in the real world.”
Synolakis, Professor USC, says Pourmohamad and Short search are important to understand how risk changes. It calls for pre -emptive procedures such as burying underground power lines as it cannot be equipped with wind.
A 2018 study I found that the fires launched by the energy lines that were dropped – such as the camp fire in heaven, California, in the same year – may increase. Although the authors note that although the power lines do not represent many fires, they are linked to larger areas of burned lands.
Synolakis said: “We must really make sure that our societies are more flexible in climate change,” said Synolakis. “As we see with the harsh conditions in Los Angeles, the suppression of the fire alone does not do so.”
