The California governor’s race just got weirder with the debate being canceled

from Dan WaltersCalMatters

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Just when we thought the California gubernatorial campaign couldn’t get any weirder, it did.

Tuesday night debate at the University of Southern California was canceled late Monday amid accusations of racism because all the candidates invited to run are white, while the four Democrats who were left out are Hispanic, black or Asian.

USC selected debaters based on their position in the polls or money raised or spent. That meant, for example, that San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan was included because of his strong financial backing from Silicon Valley, even though he is in the lower tier of candidates as measured by polls.

While the racial divide may have been the result of USC’s methodology, it is what political professionals call “bad optics” for a party embracing identity politics. Democratic leaders in the state legislature backed the four expelled candidates, saying in a letter: “The university’s selection process — built on a formula never before used for a debate of this magnitude — produced a result that is biased.”

USC has strongly defended the selection formula developed by USC professor Christian Grose and based on research using data to project the viability of applicants. As criticism mounted, however, USC was forced to back down.

“We recognize that concerns about the selection criteria for tomorrow’s gubernatorial debate have created a significant distraction from the issues that matter to voters,” USC said in a statement to the Los Angeles Times. “Unfortunately, USC and KABC (the debate co-sponsor) were unable to reach an agreement to expand the number of candidates in tomorrow’s debate. As a result, USC has made the difficult decision to cancel tomorrow’s debate and will seek other opportunities to educate voters about the candidates and the issues.”

Former Congresswoman Katie Porter, billionaire Tom Steyer and Congressman Eric Stallwell were slated to run alongside Mahan. They joined in criticizing the selection methodology, but none withdrew before the cancellation announcement, although those who remained asked them to boycott.

Directly and indirectly, Porter, Steyer, and Stallwell suggested that Mahan was invited to the debate despite his low polling position due to the intervention of Rick Caruso, a wealthy Los Angeles businessman who had been a major contributor to USC and supported Mahan after he himself flirted with a bid. Caruso and USC have vehemently denied the allegation.

The reversal was a rare bit of good news for those on the lower rung, former Attorney General Xavier Becerra, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, Public Schools Superintendent Tony Thurmond and former State Comptroller Betty Yee, all of whom have been mired in single digits in recent polls, along with Mahan.

However, their euphoria was short-lived. Twelve hours after the debate was canceled, Democratic Party Chairman Rusty Hicks released a party sponsored poll this confirmed what other studies had shown. The two Republicans, Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco, still lead with 16% and 14%, respectively, while Porter, Swawell and Steyer are tied at 10%, and every other Democrat is still mired in the low single digits, 3% to 1%, with 24% undecided.

Hicks ordered the series of polls after urging those in the lower tier to drop out, worrying aloud that the two Republicans could go 1-2 in the June 2 primary, thereby ensuring that one would win the governorship in November.

While that seems almost impossible in a state that is completely dominated by Democrats, mail-in voting will begin in just six weeks, and so far the two Republicans are still on top, and the eight Democrats have yet to catch fire with voters.

How weird is that?

This article was originally published on CalMatters and is republished under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-No Derivatives license.