Opinion | Hilton, Becerra lead in gubernatorial election

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In two weeks, we will likely know which of the 61 gubernatorial candidates placed first and second in the primaries and will face each other in November for the dubious honor of running a potentially ungovernable state.

The ambiguous adverb “probably” is justified because three gubernatorial candidates are in a very close race, and California is notorious for taking a long time to submit final election vote counts.

According to the latest Democratic poll released Tuesday, Republican Steve Hilton, a British-born former Fox News commentator, and Democrat Xavier Becerra, a former attorney general, were nearly tied with 22 percent and 21 percent, respectively. Billionaire Tom Steyer still has a 15% chance, but every other once-viable contender trails by single-digit percentages.

There are three possible outcomes for the June 2 primary, assuming none of the other 58 candidates defy political logic and enter the race in the next two weeks.

Hilton and Becerra will likely come out on top and face each other in the November election. It is less likely that Hilton and Steyer will take first and second place, or that both Democrats will take the top two spots.

Given the huge Democratic advantage in voter registration in the state, the only realistic chance Hilton has of winning in November will be if her Democratic challenger somehow self-destructs. This is an unlikely scenario, but this campaign has already generated a series of unpredictable events, so nothing should be ruled out of control.

Democratic operatives have been running a semi-secret campaign to tout Hilton’s ties to unpopular President Donald Trump, hoping it will spark a wave of Republican support that will propel him into one of the top two spots, avoiding a Democratic showdown.

That’s exactly what happened two years ago in the U.S. Senate race, when Democrat Adam Schiff helped Republican Steve Garvey advance to the November election, avoiding a showdown with Democrat Katie Porter. Porter is now running for governor, but her support has fallen to 7% in the latest poll.

Early in the gubernatorial race, Democrats worried a 1-2 record in the Republican primary would keep them out of the governorship, but that possibility was nixed when a prominent Democrat, Eric Stallwell, He was implicated in allegations of sexual harassment and assault.

Stalwell’s withdrawal (his name is still on the ballot) catapulted Becerra, who had been relegated to the bottom of the field, into the race literally overnight.

Since then, he has been the target of increasingly intense personal attacks from Steyer, who has spent millions of his vast fortune on a relentless barrage of television and Internet ads accusing Becerra of almost everything but causing the suffering caused by psoriasis.

The most compelling allegation is that Becerra was somehow guilty of a scheme in which money was diverted from one of his campaign accounts into the pockets of someone who was a trusted adviser.

Three people have pleaded guilty to federal charges in this case, prosecutors also believe that Becerra is a victim, not a perpetrator. But that didn’t stop Steyer from launching attacks that bordered on accusations against Becerra.

One of Steyer’s sharp criticisms: “Becerra’s campaign manager and chief of staff were accused of stealing from his campaign, which begs the question: Was Becerra complicit or too incompetent to notice?”

While the GOP’s 1-2 scenario has faded with the rapid rise of Becerra and the decline of the other GOP candidate, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, the possibility of a GOP deadlock has so alarmed Democratic leaders that they now plan to eliminate the top-two system that neither they nor GOP bureaucrats liked in the first place because it leaves too much to chance.

Or, to put it another way, it’s considered too small a “d” to be democratic.