Increasing the sales of electric vehicles in California stagnation: What will happen then with the historical term?

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California’s efforts to electrify his cars face a potentially serious problem: people do not buy electric cars at enough speed.

After three consecutive years of strong growth, sales stabilize in California, which raises doubts about whether the state will stop fulfilling its innovative mandate, which prohibits sales of gasoline vehicles.

According to new data from the California Energy Commission, approximately one quarter (25.3 %) of all new cars registered in California in 2024 are zero emissions, compared to just over 25 % in 2023. Sales are maintained stable After a few years of rapid growth: In 2020, only one of 13 cars sold is zero emissions. His participation in the California market has already been three times larger than four years.

But the most slow growth rate on the market puts at risk the goals of the country for climate issues and air pollution. According to California’s mandate, approved in 2022., 35 % of the new car models sold 2026 From car manufacturers, they must be zero emissions. This leaves a lot of land to restore, as at the end of this year, 2026 models will start on the market.

The requirement increased to 68% for models 2030, and in 2035 California’s standard prohibited all sales of gasoline cars.

David Simpson, the owner of three car dealers in Orange County, said he did not observe an increase in demand for electric cars. While the initial launch of some models, such as the GMC Hummer EV, works well at the beginning, the search is not supported. Sales of Chevrolet Equinox and Blazer Electric vehicles work well, but they are not strong, he said.

“Sales are decreasing,” Simpson said. “We have filled this void of people who want these cars, and now they have them, and we don’t see a big request. I do not see homes that choose 100% electric vehicles. “

Dave Klegerno, a spokesman on board Air Resources in California, which controls the mandates of electric cars, said in an email that although sales of zero -emissions in California are “less dramatic than in previous years,” sales sales Ski happened in the context of a common plateau in car sales last year.

Although the rules limit what car manufacturers can sell, Californians are not required to buy electric cars. This means that if consumer demand does not increase, it can be a heavy blow to governor Gavin Newpom, which made electric cars in a cornerstone from their program to combat climate change and air cleaning. Newsom spokesman declined to comment.

However, the state term has some flexibility, Kleger said. First, this is a perennial formula: sales of zero -emissions vehicles to each manufacturer in 2026 should be 35% of its total sales, on average for the years from 2022 to 2024.

Manufacturers can also buy loans from car manufacturers that have exceeded the target, that is, companies that sell only electric models such as Tesla or Rivian. In order to impose sales requirements in California, civil servants can impose strong fines of $ 20,000 per vehicle on manufacturers who do not reach fees.

“Manufacturers can continue to follow the rules, even if they do not reach these specific sales volumes,” Kleger said.

Brian Maas, president of the new California Divisional Association, said car manufacturers could try to avoid fines by reducing the amount of gasoline cars they send to California dealers. He said this could leave less opportunities for buyers, increase prices and push some users to Nevada or Arizona to find the car they want while others will keep their older vehicles and pollutants.

“We will not apply the mandate as it is currently written,” so car manufacturers will have to take action, “Maas said. “The most rational is to limit the inventory.”

“We have filled this void of people who want these cars – and now they have them – and we don’t see very much demand.”

David Simpson, owner of the concessionaire of Orange County

The Automobile Innovation Automobile Alliance Group has triggered these concerns since at least December, when publishing a memorandum entitled “It will need a miracle: California and the United States with requirements for the sale of electric vehicles.” The group warns that the mandate may suppress car sales in California, as well as in other countries that accept their rules.

Last month, John Bosela, CEO of the group, described the rules of California as “inevitable from every point of view” after President Donald Trump Company Enforcement order This cancels federal norms encouraged by electric vehicles.

“There is a saying in the cars sector: the customer cannot be advanced,” Bozela said.

In December, the Environmental Protection Agency of the United States, according to the Biden Outbound Administration, gave California the release, allowing the state to apply its gradual requirements for the removal of new gasoline cars. Many experts believe that the Trump administration is likely to dispute the release through the courts.

Experts also provide Trump eliminating Federal tax credit of $ 7,500 To buy zero -emissions vehicles, which would increase the cost of buying some electric cars. NEWSOM promised last year to continue offering incentives through state funds, although this promise happened before Los Angeles faced devastating forest fires and the state published its fragile budget earlier this year.

The Californians have purchased more than 2 million electric vehicles, which puts them in the first position in the country. The figure has doubled in about two years.

But sales of electric vehicles, which represent the larger part of the zero emissions, increased by only 1.1% in 2024, with 378,910 sold compared to 374 668 in 2023, they remained relatively stable. And cars targeted at hydrogen were practically last year with sales, which collapsed several 600 in 2024 since 3,119 in 2023.

The slowest growth is produced in the midst of a common slow market, with all car sales in California, slightly falling last year to 1.752,030.

Loren McDonald, the chief analyst of the collection app, said an important factor was the change in consumer demography.

The state market exceeded the first consumers of electric cars (wealthy buyers and environmental motivated, wishing to ignore challenges as limited load infrastructure and higher costs) and enter the common market.

He said that these new buyers, often with medium income, or live in residential buildings without easy loading, are much less lenient in terms of electric cars. Concerns about autonomy, broken loaders and initial costs are decisive factors.

Tesla’s market domain has exacerbated the problem. Many California users of the Left, who have once been loyal to Tesla, seem to have distanced themselves because of the controversial public image of CEO Elon Musk and his union with Trump.

As Tesla sales have weakened, with 11% in California last year, the reduction has been disproportionately affected by the general data for registration of electric vehicles in California due to the company’s important market share, McDonald said.

The accessibility remains a decisive obstacle, although McDonald sees signals for improvement. Car manufacturers have increased production, which has generated competitive prices and aggressive rental contracts, many of them for less than $ 400 a month.

But ordinary users do not know how many electric vehicles offer long -term fuel and maintenance savings, McDonald said, added that a better education is needed to convince consumers to make a jump, especially now when the prices of electric vehicles are Approaching and more to parity with gasoline vehicles.

McDonald remains optimistic about 2025. The market will benefit from new electric models with prices below $ 50,000 and technological progress, such as faster and energy capabilities of the vehicle for the home.

This article was originally published by CalmattersS