How 9 Democrats Can Help GOP Win California Governor’s Race

from Jeanne KuangCalMatters

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The nine Democrats running for governor in California’s primary could win the race — for Republicans — if some don’t drop out, the state Democratic Party chairman says.

As of Wednesday, all nine had chosen to ignore the warning from California Democratic Party Chairman Rusty Hicks.

Under California’s top-two primary system, the two candidates with the most votes advance to the November general election, regardless of party. With so many Democrats potentially splitting the vote and only two Republican front-runners — essentially tied in the polls — splitting the GOP vote, the chances of Democrats being shut out are real.

However, the candidates do not seem worried.

Former Orange County Rep. Katie Porter indicated her position in the polls (statistically tied for the lead with two other Democrats and two Republicans). Former state Comptroller Betty Yee was backed by some support from party delegates at a convention last month.

Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond, who received 2 percent, cast his campaign as a stand-off against “political elites” — and said that by favoring those with higher poll scores, party leaders are “essentially telling every candidate of color in the governor’s race to drop out.”

Meanwhile, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa has pointed to former Attorney General Xavier Becerra, who is a Latino candidate, to drop out, saying it would reduce the chances of two Republicans advancing. Becerra responded on social media that Villaraigosa had never won statewide office before, but “I have – and I will again.”

Whatever their reasoning, seven of the nine Democrats have already met Friday’s deadline to file the paperwork that officially puts their names on the June 2 primary ballot. The rest were either expected to file later in the week or issued statements suggesting they were still in the race, raising the possibility of a GOP gubernatorial primary this fall.

What are the odds?

The concern has been percolating for months, prompting Democratic data guru Paul Mitchell to create a website with the latest polling data to run statistical models predicting the chances of a Republican general election.

In recent weeks it has hovered somewhere between 10 and 18%. On Tuesday, Republican front-runner John Slavet withdrew from the race, further consolidating support among the two GOP front-runners, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and former Fox News commentator Steve Hilton. The chances of Bianco and Hilton advancing jumped to 28% in Mitchell’s model.

Mitchell explained in an interview that those odds are highest if Bianco and Hilton stay mostly even. If either succeeds, the general election will likely be between a leading Republican and a leading Democrat, he said. The latter could be Porter, climate activist and investor Tom Steyer or Bay Area Rep. Eric Swawell.

Some insiders wanted party leaders like Hicks to put more pressure on candidates to drop out. But others say it would be inappropriate for him to influence the primaries and acknowledge that several candidates have long-standing ties to party players – such as Yi, who was once the party’s vice chairman.

“Let the voters decide”

Democratic consultant Steve Mavilio argued that the state should get rid of the first-tier system instead, and said it was undemocratic for party leaders to call for anyone to leave. He noted that half of likely voters in a recent Public Policy Institute of California survey said they hadn’t been paying much attention to the race, which lower-performing candidates said meant they still had a chance.

“It’s going to happen naturally,” Mavilio said of the need for Democrats to narrow the field. “Let the voters decide.

Hicks insisted last month that candidates trailing in campaign cash and in the polls would naturally drop out of the race after the party’s convention. but delegates struggled to choose a favorite to support, and no one has dropped out.

On Tuesday, Hicks issued an unusual public warning in the form of an open letter urging candidates not to put their names on the ballot “if you don’t have a viable path to the general election.” For those who choose to remain but can’t make “significant progress toward winning the primary,” he asked them to drop out and support another Democrat by April 15, about a week before election officials begin sending out ballot information guides to voters.

Planned Parenthood, which is not yet endorsed in the race, followed up with a similar statement Tuesday, asking candidates to reconsider their campaigns.

Exploring the options

Hicks did not say whether he had contacted individual candidates directly. In an interview with CalMatters on Tuesday, he said he still believes applicants will opt out voluntarily. But he said it was possible to intervene further if the race remained so open in April.

“California Democrats are ready to do whatever it takes to ensure we have a strong candidate for the general election,” he said.

If a candidate later drops out after the voting guide is sent to voters, his name on the ballot could still take away votes from other Democrats, Hicks said.

“Each name on the ballot is going to get a certain number of votes. . . . Is that one or 2% or 6 or 7%?” he said. “I would prefer that they not take any votes from those candidates who are more viable. I can’t necessarily dictate that.”

One figure who could tip the scales but has refused to do so is Gov. Gavin Newsom.

“I honestly haven’t looked” at the contenders, he told reporters this week. “I think it’s been hard to focus on this race. . . . When I’m out in the community, people don’t talk to me about what’s interesting so late, just weeks and weeks before early voting. As a result, I’m not as directly involved as maybe I should be.”

Counties begin mailing ballots on May 4.

CalMatters political reporter Maya Miller contributed to this report.

This article was originally published on CalMatters and is republished under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-No Derivatives license.