Physical Address
304 North Cardinal St.
Dorchester Center, MA 02124
from Dan WaltersCalMatters
This comment was originally posted by CalMatters. Sign up for their newsletters.
After months of potential governors being teased, coming in and out, we finally have a field for eight Democrats and two Republicansnone of which registered more than 14% in the last poll.
All will appear on the June 2 primary ballot, and under California’s primary system, those who finish 1-2, regardless of party, will face each other in the Nov. 3 general election.
The lack of a clear leader at this stage of the four-year-old game is not only an unusual phenomenon, but it creates a host of potential scenarios as those in the dectet battle for places in the run-off in November.
“Every single one of these Democrats is fuming and hustling to get to that sweet 20% that would guarantee them a spot on the runoff,” political data guru Paul Mitchell told Politico.
Here are some scenarios:
The only real chance for a Republican governor is if the two GOP candidates, former TV commentator Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, finish 1-2 in the primary. If only one qualified for the November election, he would be too much of an underdog against any Democratic foe, given the huge gap in voter registration.
Democratic leaders have worried aloud about such a scenario if the eight Democratic candidates split the vote more or less evenly in June. They urged those trailing badly in the polls to drop out, but only one, Ian Calderon, came out.
If there is a Democratic front-runner as the June 2 primary approaches, he or she will likely try to indirectly push Hilton or Bianco into second place, possibly by tying that GOP candidate to Donald Trump to improve his standing among Republican voters. Elevating a Republican to second place would insulate the Democratic leader from having to face another Democrat in November, thus guaranteeing a victory.
That’s exactly what happened in the US Senate race two years ago. Democrat Adam Schiff spent heavily to brand (and advertise) Republican Steve Garvey as a threat, and Garvey’s second-place finish in the primary meant Schiff avoided a head-to-head duel with Democrat Katie Porter, who is now running for governor.
So in a sense, the race isn’t so much for the top spot on June 2 as it is for the No. 2 spot, as that will dictate the scope of the Nov. 3 election — a highly unlikely Republican governorship, a quick run for a Democrat against a Republican who finished second in June, or a tight battle between two Democrats.
Those scenarios are already influencing the primary campaigns, especially in how the eight Democrats choose their targets.
We see it, for example, in the sniper attack between former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and former Attorney General Xavier Becerra, renewing the long-standing feud between the two.
We also see it in the photos of billionaire Tom Steyer vs. Congressman Eric Swwell over missed votes in Congress. Both were presidential candidates in 2020 and appear to be rivals for the support of left-wing activists this year.
Finally, it is evident in Steyer’s portrayal of late-blooming challenger Matt Mahan, the mayor of San Jose, as an opponent of the union. Although Steyer’s campaign is self-funded, Mahan’s strong support from Silicon Valley could match Steyer dollar for dollar, and, with no clear favorite, money could be the deciding factor.
A November matchup between the two would be a showdown between the two warring wings of the Democratic Party, the outcome of which will affect how California deals with its many tangled issues for the next decade.
Steyer promises to deliver single-payer health insurance, utility dismantling and other elements of the long-stalled progressive agenda to California, along with tax increases to fund them, while Mahan promises that his solutions to homelessness will be practical and budget-friendly.
This article was originally published on CalMatters and is republished under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-No Derivatives license.