California Latinos are unhappy with Donald Trump in 2026

from Maya S. Miller, Jeremiah Kimmelman and Mohammed Al-EuCalMatters

This story was originally published by CalMatters. Sign up for their newsletters.

Two years ago, Chiefer Danks of Rosedale, who works in agriculture, believed the former president would stabilize the economy and make life more affordable again, as it was during his first administration. But more than a year into Trump’s second administration, Danks isn’t happy with how things have turned out.

Like Danks, many Latinos in California feel betrayed by the president’s campaign promises to immediately cut spending and protect the U.S. from foreign military entanglements — both of which ring hollow as gasoline and grocery prices soar largely because of Trump’s unpopular war in Iran.

They are also dismayed and outraged that the second Trump administration is targeting Latinos — both those here illegally and legally, even U.S. citizens — with violent immigration raids and deportations, tearing families apart in the process.

“I thought he was going to make America great again,” Danks, 31, said as he waited for his wife at El Mercado Latino, a center for Latino-owned family businesses in the predominantly Hispanic East Bakersfield neighborhood. “He didn’t keep his word.”

Polls and off-year polls show Latinos reversing their historic 2024 rightward shift to Trump. And according to a new CalMatters review of 2025 election data, that trend also applied to last year’s special redistricting election — which Democrats successfully framed as a referendum on Trump.

The analysis of voting results from 57 of California’s 58 counties found that Proposition 50, Gov. Gavin Newsom’s plan to gerrymander the state’s congressional districts in favor of Democrats, significantly outperformed Kamala Harris’ 2024 presidential campaign in districts where the majority of voters are not white.

The trend was most striking in precincts where the majority of ballots were cast by Hispanic voters. Yes to Prop. 50 gained about 30 percentage points over Harris’ performance against Trump a year earlier, according to the CalMatters analysis.

CalMatters’ findings provide some of the clearest quantitative evidence yet that the Latino right-wing shift toward Trump in 2024 was more of a blip than a permanent realignment, a national trend that has so far been captured by state and national surveys, focus groups and anecdotal evidence.

Latino voters turned to Prop. 50. Here’s how we analyzed the data →

The Yes vote on Proposition 50 was a way for Latinos to channel their pent-up frustration with the Trump administration, said Ben Tulchin, a San Francisco-based Democratic pollster who has conducted several surveys and focus groups with Latino voters.

“These Hispanics, even those who voted for Trump in 2024, were angry with him,” Tulchin said. “They feel cheated by Trump and his promises.”

The failure to deliver on economic promises has sown mistrust and bitterness, but Latinos also felt unfairly targeted by the administration on many fronts, including changing the name of the “Gulf of Mexico” to the “Gulf of the Americas,” high tariffs on goods coming from Mexico and, of course, a crackdown on immigration, Tulchin said.

Danks’ mother-in-law, a green card holder, ran a fruit stand on a street corner in their neighborhood. But she closed the business after increased inspections by the federal Immigration and Customs Enforcement last year.

“Because she’s Latina, and you know even if she’s a U.S. resident, she doesn’t feel safe,” said Lorena Herrera, Danks’ wife, who lives in the U.S. on a work visa. “Now nobody is really safe in this country. It’s really sad.”

Democrats hope they can capitalize on this anti-Trump frustration among Latinos as they work to flip control of one or both houses of Congress in November. The path to a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives likely runs through California, where Latinos could play a decisive role in at least two lottery seats — one in the Central Valley and the other in San Diego.

But despite a strong showing for Prop. 50 may confirm dissatisfaction with the GOP and the Trump administration, that doesn’t necessarily mean those voters will support Democrats — or vote at all.

Interviews with nearly a dozen eligible Latinos in the Central Valley highlighted a deep-seated skepticism of all politicians that often keeps many voters on the sidelines. Even Danks, despite his dissatisfaction with life under a Republican-controlled federal government, did not vote in last year’s special election for Prop. 50 and said he probably won’t vote in the midterm elections later this year.

“Was Prop. 50 an indicator of something ideological or a homecoming? No, not even a little bit,” said Mike Madrid, a conservative political consultant who studies the behavior of Latino voters. “They reject the party in power that does not prioritize their economic problems.”

Cost of living ‘spiraling out of control’

Since Prop. 50 was passed last November, the Trump administration has become less popular with Latino voters, shows a national surveyas spending continues to rise on essentials such as groceries, utilities and especially gasoline given the ongoing war in Iran.

“It’s getting out of hand,” said Gabriel Gracia, 31, of Tulare, who runs a small commercial cleaning business in Woodlake, about 25 miles to the northeast. All that driving adds up to about two tanks of gas per week — which has gone from about $60 to almost $85.

“Everything is too expensive,” echoed Monica Rodriguez, 31, another Tulare resident who spoke with CalMatters on a recent afternoon as she walked into Superior Groceries to pick up some ingredients for the chicken she was making for dinner.

Her family sticks to chicken and pork when eating meat, she said, because they often can’t afford beef. She bought a used Honda Fit because of the fuel economy because gas prices are so high and she has to drive across town twice a day to get her two sons to and from school.

Rodriguez even said she considered having a third child as she had always wanted a daughter, but the costs of diapers, baby formula and other essentials were so high that she gave up.

Despite her frustrations with the cost of living, Rodriguez has not voted recently, abstaining from both the 2024 presidential election and the special election for Prop. 50. But she said she might vote in this year’s midterm elections if she can get her sister to help her fill out her ballot.

“I have to vote, but I don’t because I’m stressed,” Rodriguez said, explaining that she doesn’t always understand who’s running for which office and how to fill out her ballot.

Gracia, who also spoke to CalMatters on his way to Superior Groceries, said he voted for Trump in 2024 because it was “a choice between bad and worse.” He disliked the way the United States was seen as a “weak country” under President Joe Biden and believed the economy would be better under Trump than it was the first time he was in office.

“His first term was good, so I figured his second term would be just as good,” Gracia said. “They sold us lies, basically. That’s what they do.”

Despite his disappointment, Gracia said he would still vote for Trump because the GOP’s tax policies are more favorable to small business owners like himself. He did not vote for Proposition 50 and said he supports Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco for governor.

Prop. 50 energized the Democratic base

While Proposition 50 served as an outlet for the anger of some voters, it also spurred additional voter turnout among Latino Democrats who have found themselves uninspired by Vice President Kamala Harris’ 2024 campaign.

“I just didn’t have someone that I could say I resonated with,” said Angel Jimenez, 23, a sophomore animal science student at Bakersfield College.

Jimenez said he wasn’t so inspired by the field that he didn’t vote for president in 2024. As a former supporter of Bernie Sanders, Donald Trump was “definitely not” the candidate for him. Jimenez considered Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for his environmental platform, but ultimately decided he was not viable. And he didn’t like how the Democratic Party leadership tagged Harris as Biden’s replacement before the public had a chance to weigh in.

But when Jimenez heard about Prop. 50 and the Democrats’ pushback against Trump and the Republican redistricting effort in Texas, he was eager to level the playing field.

“They were gaining an unfair advantage,” Jimenez said of Texas. “I was for it being evening again.”

Jimenez spoke with CalMatters after a campus candidate forum for 22nd Congressional District. Democrat Randy Villegas, who is backed by both Sanders and the progressive Working Families Party, was the only candidate to emerge. After the forum, Jimenez signed up to volunteer with the campaign and also inquired about internship opportunities.

Jimenez, who is more liberal, said the conflict in Iran and how it affects the cost of living and affordability will be key factors in how he decides to vote this year.

“War right now is definitely something where everything is volatile,” he said. “Job security could be affected. The economy as a whole is affected.”

This article was originally published on CalMatters and is republished under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-No Derivatives license.