Becerra wins on Kalshi. They also bet on his campaign.

from Jeremiah KimmelmanCalMatters

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Online prediction market company Kalshi cut gubernatorial candidate Xavier Becerra’s campaign a check for $39,200 last Friday, just days before voters decide which two candidates will advance to the November general election.

Meanwhile, the company’s market gave Becerra a 74 percent chance of becoming governor in November as of Monday afternoon.

The timing of Kalshi’s contribution to Becerra, the second-largest by a statewide candidate in history, raises questions about conflicts of interest: Should a betting market donate to candidates while its own clients bet on candidates in the same election?

“It seems particularly problematic when a betting market makes large contributions to every candidate for whom it holds betting markets,” said Trent Lange, executive director of the California Campaign for Clean Money.

Kalshi declined to comment on the contribution or potential conflict of interest.

Lange said part of the problem is that betting markets can change the public’s perception of candidates, even though there isn’t full transparency about how the odds are calculated. And this becomes further problematic when the marketing company makes clear which candidates it prefers.

“We know that people often look at where candidates are in the betting markets to see how viable people think they are and that can actually swing a lot of people’s votes,” he said.

The campaign did not respond to direct questions about Kalshi’s contributions or whether actively betting on his chances to win constituted a conflict of interest.

“Californians from all walks of life are lining up to support Xavier Becerra,” Jonathan Underland, a spokesman for Becerra’s campaign, said in a written statement.

Kalshi, founded in 2018, has dramatically increased its political spending in California since early last year, when the company first reported contributions to state candidates and lobbying state government.

Since the second quarter of 2025, Kalshi has contributed $115,000 to state candidates, including Becerra, and $100,000 to the state Democratic Party. He also spent $72,000 pushing his case to lawmakers, the attorney general and the governor.

Kalshi started an advocacy group with Crypto.comCoinbase and Robinhood called the “Prediction Markets Coalition” late last year, run by former Democratic officials. The group registered with the state to lobby for the first time earlier this year.

Kalshi, along with the coalition, lobbied account direct the Attorney General to investigate mark-to-market payments of at least $5,000 if the result is a matter of national security, and account aimed at preventing children from gambling online.

Both bills are still making their way through the Assembly, and the disclosure forms don’t say how the company lobbied.

One of Kalshi’s main competitors, Polymarket, has yet to report any government campaign contributions or lobbying spending.

This article was originally published on CalMatters and is republished under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-No Derivatives license.