Who is leading in the race for governor?

from Jeanne KuangCalMatters

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California voters will nominate two gubernatorial candidates on the November ballot in the messiest gubernatorial race in recent memory, ending a long and tortuous primary campaign in which Democrats have struggled to elect a new leader for the nation’s most populous blue state.

The decision comes at a particularly important time for California. Residents face a crushing cost of living, high gas prices exacerbated by the Iran war, wildfire risks that have driven insurance companies out of the state, a shaky state budget, impending federal cuts to the state’s vast health care system and an economy weighed down by immigration crackdowns.

Former Democratic Attorney General Xavier Becerra, who has vowed to fight Trump and freeze insurance and utility rates, is the leading Democrat in polls and is favored by much of the state’s Democratic base. He emerged in a race to secure one of the top two seats for November, approaching Election Day.

Republican Steve Hilton, a former Fox News anchor backed by Donald Trump, who has promised to cut income taxes and reducing environmental regulationswas in second place in the poll before Election Day after consolidating the support of many of the state’s conservatives.

But billionaire climate activist Tom Steyer, a progressive Democrat who self-financed his campaign to the tune of $213 million, was still in contention for one of the top spots. A series of polls released in the final days of the race showed Becerra leading with roughly a quarter of likely voter support, with Steyer and Hilton in a tight battle for second place.

Votes can take counting days or weeks. Sociologists and strategists note that continued Democratic uncertainty has led some voters to wait to support whoever appears to be ahead.

“These polls can become self-fulfilling,” said Paul Mitchell, a Democratic strategist whose company tracks returned ballot data.

The race to succeed Gov. Gavin Newsom, who will leave office at the end of the year due to term limits, is the race on Tuesday’s ballot. The seat is considered a hot seat in November for Democrats, who have nearly twice as many registered voters as Republicans, and is of national importance to the Democratic Party’s pushback against the Trump administration.

It was also one of the most unusually open races in recent state history.

There are no Democratic stars in the race

In contrast to decades of California politics dominated by movie stars, family dynasties and larger-than-life personalities, none of the most recognizable Democratic names entered the race.

This led to a crowded field on the left, briefly causing liberals to panic that Hilton and fellow Republican, bombastic Riverside County Sheriff Chad Biancoeach can garner more votes than any Democrat, locking the party out of the general election. The state Democratic Party began a public pressure campaign asking candidates with lower scores to drop out. Almost everyone stayed in the race.

But when then-Democratic Rep. Eric Swawell resigned amid multiple sexual-assault allegations, Becerra was the clear beneficiary, attracting many of Swalwell’s donors and supporters. He is was growing successfully since then avoiding criticism of his record. Steyer, who spent $200 million to boost his name recognition through advertising campaigns, has consolidated much of the party’s left wing. Former Congresswoman Katie Porter, Progressive dogged by claims about her temperamentlagged behind. San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, a moderate backed by Silicon Valley billionaires, rose from single digits in the polls, but not by enough.

Trump’s endorsement of Hilton quickly helped him pull away from Bianco, making it unlikely that both Republicans would take first and second place. If Hilton advances to the November election, he faces a strong chance of being elected against a Democrat.

Both he and Steyer spent the final weeks of the campaign portraying Becerra as a symbol of the status quo and themselves as agents of systemic change amid multiple state crises, with affordability dominating the race.

For Hilton, that would mean ending 16 years of “one-party rule” under Democrats, cutting spending and reversing many liberal policies, such as mandates to cut greenhouse gases, the progressive tax system and parts of the social safety net.

“After 16 years of everything going in one direction, it left a lot of people unhappy,” he said last week. “Anyone who wants change or balance in our politics, the only choice is for me.”

His name recognition as a former Fox anchor helped launch him into the race with fans. Nancy LeVesque, a retired Roseville store clerk, already admired him and said he was an easy choice when she cast her ballot at the Placer County Election Center on Monday. She liked that he would bring an outside perspective to the governor’s office and a change for those leaving California because of its liberal politics.

“We’ve lost so many good people” in other countries, she said.

Steyer casts himself as a populist “class traitor” who will impose lower costs on Californians by taking on moneyed special interests such as investor-owned utilities, the real estate industry and health insurance corporations. He made a litany of progressive promises on climate change, single payer health care and raising taxes on the rich.

Undecided voter Tina Varnado attended a rally last week for Steyer organized by her union, which represents home health aides. The South Sacramento resident is a full-time caregiver for her elderly mother and her grown daughter, who underwent heart surgery. Between her mother’s Social Security and her pay as her daughter’s health aide, “we have to spend everything we have every month” to stay afloat, she said.

“Everything he touched really touched me,” she said after hearing Steyer speak. “If we can get the prices down, maybe we can start putting money towards a home for my future.”

Becerra highlighted his years of experience in government, including his lawsuits against the first Trump administration and his time as the US Secretary of Health and Human Services during the pandemic.

That appealed to Evan Cragin of the California Young Democrats, who endorsed Becerra weeks before his sudden jump. Cragin said he wants the next governor to have management experience to push back against federal “abuses” by the Trump administration.

“Minister Becerra has done this before,” Cragin said.

Flanked by supporters at the offices of Planned Parenthood Affiliates of California on Monday, Becerra dismissed his opponents’ promises, pointing to past accomplishments including passing the Affordable Care Act and protecting the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals immigration program.

“You can have all these big inflated promises,” he said. “Getting things done isn’t easy.”

Ryan Sabalow contributed reporting.

This article was originally published on CalMatters and is republished under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-No Derivatives license.