Tensions in the governor’s race as Democrats hold on for votes

Recent polls show it’s a three-way race for the top two spots in California’s governor’s race, and a big reason we don’t have a clear picture of who’s ahead is that many Democratic voters are waiting until the last minute to choose a candidate.

In about 24 hours, voters across the state will decide whose names appear on the ballot in November to lead California for the next four years.

Three nonpartisan polls released last week found that Dem Xavier Becerra forwardwith Republican Steve Hilton and Democrat Tom Steyer neck and neck for second place.

Millions have already cast their ballots before Election Day, but like previous gubernatorial primaries, voter turnout is relatively low compared to the general election: As of Sunday, only 15.10% of all ballots were filed, according to voter data firm Political Data Inc. This is a similar level during the June 2022 primary election, when 14.53% of ballots were returned three days before Election Day.

A difference of 0.57 percentage points might not sound like much, but if we dig a little deeper, the data reveals that Democratic voters are casting their ballots at a slower rate than they did in 2022: 15% of Democratic ballots have been returned to date, compared to 17% four years ago. Meanwhile, a higher percentage of Republicans returned their ballots, with 19% of GOP ballots cast, compared to 17% in 2022.

Paul Mitchell, vice president of PDI, told me three factors likely explain why GOP voters cast ballots faster. One is that Republicans only have to choose between two candidates, while the Democratic front-runners are six. Republicans have also been voting early by mail, a practice they appear to be returning to after President Donald Trump dissuaded them from doing so in 2020.

But older white Democrats show the biggest lag and are waiting to cast their ballots or have not yet decided who they will vote for, Mitchell said. California’s top-two primary system allows two candidates from the same party to potentially run on the November ballot, so some liberal voters want to make sure they can advance at least one Democratic candidate.

• Mitchell: “All the stories about two Republicans running, they’re maybe calculating their vote to make sure they’re voting in a way that’s strategic to make sure a Democrat gets into the general election.”

Kevin Cullen, also of the PDI, added that while some Democrats are not strongly committed to either of the front-runners, they do understand the possible long-term consequences of their vote in June.

• Callan: “Democratic voters know that whichever Democratic candidate enters the race will be our next governor. That adds more weight to their decision.”