Becerra, Hilton lead in race for California governor

from Dan WaltersCalMatters

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The 2026 campaign to succeed Gov. Gavin Newsom may be over after next week’s primary ballots are counted, though the election still has to be held in November.

A a new study by the Public Policy Institute of California found that the Democrat Xavier Becerraa former congressman, attorney general and member of Biden’s cabinet and a Republican Steve Hiltonformer Fox News commentator, have what appears to be a commanding presence just days before the June 2 primary.

If they finish in the top two next week, they will face each other in the general election in November. But the poll also found that Democrats have nearly 2-to-1 support among California voters over Republicans, a trend PPIC has consistently identified since December.

While polls should always be viewed with skepticism, this latest poll suggests Becerra will be California’s next governor. It’s a remarkable opportunity for a candidate who was barely noticeable in the early stages of the primary but burst into the race after the previous U.S. Rep. Eric Swawell’s campaign collapsed after a wave of sexual misconduct allegations.

The PPIC poll found that 23 percent of likely voters voted or planned to vote for Becerra, followed by Hilton at 20 percent and billionaire Democrat Tom Steyer at 15 percent, the same position he has held for weeks despite spend nearly $200 million on adsmany of whom led sharp political attacks on Becerra.

At one time, Democratic leaders worried that Hilton and Chad Biancothe Republican sheriff of Riverside County, could go 1-2 and freeze out Democrats. The sudden departure of Swalwell and the equally sudden elevation of Becerra have undone that scenario.

Bianco received 13% in the PPIC poll, followed by former Rep. Katie Porter at 12%.

Although the GOP threat has faded, the slim possibility that it has happened has unnerved Democrats. Some are insisting on an electoral measure of disposal the top-two primary system and a return to closed-party primaries.

The top-two system was adopted by voters in 2010 after Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and Democratic legislative leaders put it on the ballot as part of a budget deal. Schwarzenegger said a top-two system, called by some “jungle primaries,” would result in more centrist lawmakers being elected because candidates would have to appeal to a wider range of voters.

Whether that was the result is debatable, but the leaders of both parties never liked the system that was imposed on them.

However, the PPIC poll found that voters still like him.

“About six in 10 say they are satisfied with the selection of candidates in the governor’s race and think the top two primary has mostly been a good thing for California since Proposition 14 passed in 2010,” PPIC pollsters said in their analysis.

The poll confirming Becerra and Hilton as the potential top two finishers is the latest wrinkle in a primary campaign that has been impossible to handicap because none of the serious contenders, initially a dozen of the 61 names on the ballot, have emerged as a clear front-runner.

Politicians who would have been obvious front-runners, such as former Vice President Kamala Harris, U.S. Senator Alex Padilla, Attorney General Rob Bonta or Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis, all passed. Kounalakis initially ran for governor, but ultimately chose to run for state treasurer.

Swawell was an early front-runner, but suspended his campaign in April after the San Francisco Chronicle revealed allegations of sexual assault by women. After more reports emerged, he resigned from Congress.

Becerra, who had been stuck in the lower tier of candidates, immediately shot to the top. Meanwhile, two Democrats who were expected to be contenders, Porter and the mayor of San Jose Matt Mahannever clicked.

Steyer continues to grapple with his historically heavy barrage of publicity, both positive and negative, but it doesn’t seem like he’s caught up. His campaign fought to discredit the PPIC poll, calling it an “outdated snapshot.”

This article was originally published on CalMatters and is republished under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-No Derivatives license.