Trump’s war on Iran may harm American farmers

Global oil and Gas prices have risen dramatically after The American attack on Iran Last weekend. But another universal key Suppliers They are also at risk, which could directly impact American farmers who have already been stressed for months due to the tariff wars. conflict in The Middle East It chokes off global fertilizer supplies just before the crucial spring planting season.

“This literally couldn’t have happened at a worse time,” says Josh Linville, vice president of fertilizers at financial services company StoneX.

The global fertilizer market focuses on three main macronutrients: phosphate, nitrogen, and potash. They are all produced in different ways, with different countries leading exports. Farmers consider a variety of factors, including crop type and soil conditions, when deciding which of these types of fertilizers to apply to their fields.

Potash and phosphate are extracted from different types of natural deposits. In contrast, nitrogen fertilizers are produced using natural gas. Qatar LNG, a subsidiary of Qatar Energy, the state-run oil and gas company, said on Monday that it would halt production after drone strikes on some of its facilities. This effectively cut off nearly a fifth of the world’s natural gas supply, sending gas prices soaring in Europe.

This closure puts supplies of urea, a common type of nitrogen fertilizer, particularly at risk. Qatar Energy said on Tuesday that it would also do so Stopping the production of finished productsIncluding urea. Qatar was the second-largest exporter of urea in 2024. (Iran was the third-largest, and is also a major exporter of ammonia, another type of nitrogen fertilizer.) Prices of urea sold in the United States outside New Orleans, a major commodity port, rose nearly 15 percent Monday compared to prices last week, according to data provided to WIRED by Linville. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz also prevents other countries in the region from exporting nitrogen products.

“When we look at ammonia, we’re looking at almost 30 percent of global production either involved or at risk in this conflict,” says Veronica Nye, a senior economist at the Fertilizer Institute, a US-based industry advocacy organization. “It gets worse when we think about urea. It’s about 50 percent urea.”

Other types of fertilizers are also at risk. Saudi Arabia provides about 40 percent of all U.S. phosphate imports, Nye says. Taking them out of the equation for more than a few days could create a “really difficult situation” for the United States. Other countries in the region, including Jordan, Egypt and Israel, also play a large role in these markets.

“We’ve already heard reports that some manufacturers in the Arabian Gulf have stopped production because they’re saying, ‘I have a limited amount of storage for my supplies,’” Linville says. “Once I get to the top, I can’t do anything else. “So I’m going to shut down my production to make sure I don’t go beyond that.”

The conflict in the strait escalated in the first part of this week, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps reportedly threatening any ship passing through the strait. Traffic has slowed to a crawl. On Tuesday, the Trump administration announced initiatives aimed at protecting oil tankers passing through the strait, including providing naval escort. Even if these initiatives succeed, which the shipping industry has achieved He expressed his doubt– Much of the initial energy will likely be directed towards nurturing oil and gas assets outside the region.

“Fertilizers are not going to be the most valuable thing to cross the Strait,” Nye says.