Trump’s new H-1B policy caused a short-term panic-and will cause long-term chaos

Throughout his 2016 presidential campaign, Donald Trump Often claim His efforts against immigration were primarily against irregular or illegal immigration, and that he was happy to make people go through “appropriate channels”. These assurances have become weaker as he moved to his first term, but it is still at least a rhetorical initiatives of legal migration-he had to satisfy a business community that is still skeptical of his new political movement at the time.

Now, Trump and anti-immigration ideologies such as Stephen Miller have succeeded in targeting the international students ’pipeline and foreign workers over visas such as H-1B. They formulated a novel about workers to use external sources to replace the workers born in the original born. But in reality, this wide campaign is now threatening the knee strings across the economy.

This general perception of the H-1B visa system that brings the cheapest international work (and stereotype, often less skill), especially in technological spaces. This is undoubtedly It happened; In the past, there were some companies to use external sources that raise the visas fans, and since there is Search backup Employers have acted in exploitative ways towards workers who are associated with them effectively under the law and less able to search for better conditions or organization.

But this is only one piece of the puzzle – which is increasingly small in recent years, as the Biden administration has taken steps to curb violations, and extend to them The weeks before Trump’s inauguration. The other side of the currency is that the H-1BS is often used by the workforce for technical industries that cannot simply find workers from homes with skills or experience in the folders they need, and a kind of mirror image of industries such as agriculture and dependence on building on workers who are often not documented for jobs that teachers cannot or not do. This includes technology, yes – and indeed The largest beneficiary is Amazon -But also high technical manufacturing, educational services, consulting, health care and research, and even Trump’s phenomenon priorities such as the semiconductor industry, which is It relies heavily on the visa.

The allocation of the difference in the reality of legal immigration about how most Americans, including Trump himself, probably, had always had an Overton window transformation link towards immigration hatred. This would clarify a path for the restrictions of real believers such as Stephen Miller to move to every aspect of immigration to the country. His campaign began during Trump’s term, but it was seriously launched during the second, with the administration, with the exception of the refugee program, targeting the family reunification, and trying to ride the regime that brings foreign talent to the United States, from students to workers.

Management Revive this week The first proposal for the very high wage owners in the lottery that allocates 85,000 visas is available annually, so that people with current job offers or work will get more than $ 160,000 annually on annually, unlike one for those who have $ 85,000. This came immediately after Trump’s release Act executive is legally doubtful Labor owners claim to pay a fixed fee of $ 100,000 to apply for these visas. All this came in the aftermath of the administration Efforts against international student visasIncluding mysterious speech restrictions for both student and worker visas The sudden cancellation of thousands of student visasMany activity on campus or simple law enforcement.

“Since the delay and gap in the way they give data, we will not really know two or two school sessions, what is the current level of political discourse, fear and results that he did to reduce the highest demand,” said Xiao Wang, CEO of National Migration, a group of national immigration research. More than 1.1 million International students were registered at American universities in the last academic year, although countries like Canada and China are gaining quickly.

At the end of the day, follow -up to the American education visa and subsequent work visa is a significant investment – from money, yes, as international students are categorically less qualified for all types of financial aid and are not fully qualified to get things like federal student loans – but also from time and effort. They are years of cultural and professional acclimatization with the expectation that they will have at least an opportunity to apply their skills here in the long run.

Wang said: “What the investment needs more – and I mean any kind of investment – is trust and stability in what you put in these funds, whether it is based on the infrastructure, whether it builds a factory, whether it builds a farm, whether it builds a profession or investment in education.”

There was immediate chaos in the wake of the signing of the executive order, which was not previously announced by the Ministry of Internal Security or the White House; Some visa holders abroad Anxiety will not be allowed to return to the country Without paying exorbitant fees before the White House quickly explains that it will only apply to new applicants. The Amazon, Google and Microsoft stood to send warnings to their workers They must return to the United States immediately. The same is the same on a fragile legal basis. The Immigration Law gives the executive authority the ability to set a visa fee to cover the treatment costs, but it is not simply any age of any fees the administration wants. The challenges may succeed and these challenges may succeed in light of their absence from any legal basis, although it has not certainly prevented some federal courts from signing management procedures so far.

Trump is preparing for more. One of the currently suspended suggestions is a change for students and the exchange of visas from being valid for the duration of the recipient’s status as a student in reforming the four -year terms that require re -appearing. For every poll conducted in August and September by the Progress Institute and NAFSAThe Professional Organization of International Student Consultants, and this would inhibit enrollment, as half of the respondents said that they would not have enrolled in the universities of the United States if this is the current policy.

“There is no four -year PhD program, right? Most university students take more than four years. So you are almost guaranteed to get giant uncertainty in the middle or towards the end of your studies,” said Doug Rand, a former national security official (who was also founded from without borders). Rand indicated that the director of American citizenship and immigration services, Joseph Adlo, recently He was also speaking On taking the goal of optional practical training (OPT), the work license that new graduates gets at the end of their academic programs that often act as the Stopgap so that they can secure full work visas. “The Trump administration is already working in an attempt to break every step of this process very deliberately … for me, (OPT) is the real pore point. It will be interesting to see whether America and technology are actually going to war on it.”

To date, TECH and other Heavy H-1B heavy industries have been concealed on the contrary Anger When Trump targeted visas at the end of his first term. (In 2020, for example, the CEO of Alphabet Sundar Pichai, who is one once holding H-1B, said that he “is disappointed by announcing today-we will continue to stand with immigrants and work to expand opportunities for everyone”; this time, he has never made any public data. He said: “I think we will enter a world in which you will not see spicy press releases say this is bad But you will see associations for lawsuits, so that there is no individual company at the intersection. “

Reconstruction efforts should not be practically successful for a deterrent effect. Likewise, the salary base technically will not reduce the total number of H-1B visas available, but it will certainly prevent employers even from trying to employ new graduates who will be highly weighting in the lottery system, and suffocating talent pipeline. The general atmosphere of uncertainty and open hostility from the federal government does not encourage participation on two fronts: it is unlikely that students and workers want to courage the glove, and employers do not want to employ the dice in employment operations that the government may change at any time. (H-1B) is a random lottery. Get it: put names in a hat, draw names. This is what I registered for. I understand how it works. I understand the number of shots I have in the lottery. I understand what is happening if I don’t win the lottery. Now it was not clear. “

This ghost can have long -term traces of catastrophic on some industries. According to Analysis by the Kaiser Family FoundationNearly 500,000 country nurses of 3.2 million nurses in 2022 immigrants under a mixture of H-1B. Separately, Conrad 30 allows some unknown to some medical graduates to obtain exemptions to remain in the post -graduation period from the country for training in medically deprived areas, and the program was the program It grows in use over the past two decades.

The collapse of medical students, doctors and nurses will not be replaced in student visas, exchange and work, that these highly trained professionals will be immediately replaced by health workers born immediately. The result will be fewer doctors and nurses working in the country, especially in areas that are already suffering from a shortage and as the American year of large ages and requires additional care.

These problems collect-if there are fewer professionals in the training and early service pipeline, high-tech manufacturing, or anything else, we will see the effects for years even if policies are reversed at some point. It may seem very technical and a little bit for the general public, but these policies will have a widespread impact on the United States’s ability to compete with technology companies abroad and our ability to maintain people’s safety and health. H-1B is what Trump considered a “suitable channel” for migration-but his administration seems to eliminate these paths as well.

Rand said: “I do not think that Stephen Miller can turn off the competition overnight, right?