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Gossip about The AI bubble has been everywhere lately, and major tech companies like Google, Meta, and Microsoft have doubled their investments in AI for 2026. But how have analysts in the past been able to accurately identify the formation of tech bubbles? Hosts Michael Calore and Lauren Goode sit down with Brian Merchant, WIRED contributor and newsletter author blood in the machine, To analyze the four criteria that some researchers have used in the past to understand and prepare for the worst.
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You can follow Michael Calore on Bluesky at @snackfight And Lauren Goode on Bluesky at @loringood. Write to us on uncannyvalley@wired.com.
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Michael Calore: Hi Lauren, how are you?
Lauren Goode: I’m fine, Mike. It’s earnings season, so many of us on the business desk here at WIRED have been following tech companies’ earnings reports and earnings calls. And I think that basically means it’s CapEx season.
Michael Calore: Capital?
Lauren Goode: Capital expenditures.
Michael Calore: You say capex?
Lauren Goode: Yes. Now that I’m a Business Bureau reporter, I say CapEx.
Michael Calore: You are one of those.
Lauren Goode: I throw it at parties. No, I really don’t. But we’re seeing a trend in how tech companies are sleeping on piles of money, but they’re not just sleeping on them. They share big plans for spending, especially spending on AI infrastructure.
Michael Calore: right. Data centers.
Lauren Goode: Yes, more data centers, not just data centers. But yeah, that’s a big part of it.