The CA population has plateaued. As well as his political influence

from Dan WaltersCalMatters

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The Federal Census Bureau annually announces new population count for the country and its 50 states, based on calculations of how births, deaths and migration changed numbers from July 1 to June 30 of the previous year.

The State Department of the Treasury announces annually new population of Californiabased its calculations on these same demographic factors over the same 12-month period.

The numbers often differ, and in recent years differences of a million people or more have emerged from the two agencies’ calculations in California.

In December, the state agency announced that as of last July, California’s population was 39.529 million, an increase of 19,200 from 2024. Although arithmetically insignificant, the small increase was hailed by officials and the media as proof that California is no longer losing people.

Last month, the Census Bureau released its latest estimates, putting California’s population at 39.355 million, down 9,465 from the previous year. That suggests California’s decline that began with the COVID-18 pandemic is still happening, with a net loss of 200,394 residents since the 2020 census.

Although the difference of 174,000 between the two numbers is relatively small, from a socio-political perspective one shows growth while the other shows contraction. Thus, California officials claim that predictions of the state’s impending collapse are false, while its critics argue that California is still in decline.

There is no doubt, however, that California is at best on a population plateau — either gaining or losing very slowly after a 175-year history of sometimes staggering rates of population growth. In the decade 1980-90, for example, the state’s population increased by about 6 million people, a nearly 25 percent increase, thanks to high levels of immigration and a high birth rate.

Its current stagnation, whatever the exact numbers, reflects stagnant levels of foreign migration, a much lower birth rate and continued net loss in migration from country to country.

Hans Johnson and Eric McGee, demographers at the Public Policy Institute of California, have outlined this trend in recent report declare: “This migration over decades has the power to change the state. From 2010 to 2024 (the year of the most recent data), nearly 10 million people moved from California to other states, while just over 7 million people moved to California from other parts of the country, according to the American Community Survey. In fact, according to Treasury Department estimates, the state has lost residents to other states every year since 2001.”

PPIC found that most of those leaving the state were adults without a college degree. Texas is their top destination and one can assume they are escaping the high cost of living.

California is not alone in population stagnation or loss. New York and Illinois are two others, and in general, states with slow or no growth tend to be politically blue, while the big winners, such as Texas, Florida and the fastest producer, South Carolinalean to the right.

The growth gap between red and blue states is likely to affect the latter after the 2030 census, when the nation’s 435 congressional seats are split. Two new surveys by reputable organizations predict that California and other big blue states will lose some of their seats to fast-growing red states, based on new Census Bureau data.

The American Redirection Project and Jonathan Vervas at Carnegie Mellon University see California losing four of its 52 seats, Texas gaining four and Florida gaining two or four.

Redistricting in Congress, of course, also shifts the presidential vote, meaning Republican candidates’ prospects will improve and Democrats’ prospects will decline after 2030.

There is an old saying demographics are destiny. What is happening now underscores this truth.

This article was originally published on CalMatters and is republished under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-No Derivatives license.