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An expected worldwide shortage of memory chips will have a more serious impact on smartphone sales in 2026 than previously expected, according to new data from International Data Corporation Worldwide. While the company Only in November It had estimated a decline of between 0.9% and 5.2% (the latter being the “pessimistic scenario”), but now expects a decline of 12.9% this year, based on its forecast. Quarterly mobile phone tracker worldwide.
“What we are seeing is not a temporary stress, but rather a tsunami-like shock originating in the memory supply chain, with ripple effects spreading across the entire consumer electronics industry,” Francisco Geronimo, vice president of global client devices at IDC, said in a statement.
The companies most affected are expected to be those that sell to the lower end of the market, which cannot absorb higher component costs while maintaining profit margins. As a result, Geronimo says, many of these players will pass on the additional costs to consumers.
This also includes regional markets such as the Middle East and Africa that mostly sell cheap smartphones, which could see a sharp decline of 20.6% year-on-year.
IDC predicts a sharp decline in smartphone sales for 2026.
By contrast, IDC expects Apple and Samsung to be more resilient to the crisis. “At a time when smaller, lower-tier Android vendors struggle with rising costs, Apple and Samsung have not only weathered the storm, but will likely expand their market share as the competitive landscape intensifies,” Geronimo said.
Memory has become scarce because The insatiable demand to fuel generative AI. Basically, all the memory that will be manufactured this year has already been allocated. What started as demand for graphics processors has expanded to include other components. For example, hard drive manufacturer Western Digital announced in early February that it had already done so Sold out of stock For the year 2026.
“We expect consolidation as smaller players exit, low-end sellers face sharp declines in shipments amid supply constraints and lower demand at higher price points,” said Nabila Popal, senior research director at IDC, forecasting a 14% increase in the average selling price of smartphones to $523.
Bhopal expects memory prices to stabilize by mid-2027, but does not expect them to fall to previous levels. She said the sub-$100 segment, which consists of about 171 million devices, would be “completely uneconomical.” “In short, there is no return to business as usual for sellers and consumers.”