Senator Padilla leaves a cloudy field of gubernatorial candidates

from Dan WaltersCalMatters

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In 362 days, California voters will elect a new governor. It’s just around the corner politically, given the expense and organizational lift that a statewide campaign requires in the nation’s most populous state.

The winner will almost certainly be — as sure as anything in politics can be — a Democrat. If anything, passage from Proposition 50Gov. Gavin Newsom in Congress in the middle of the decade, reaffirmed that California is a one-party state.

But which Democrat?

As the 2026 election cycle approaches — candidates can begin filing next month — the field for Newsom’s successors is getting murkier.

U.S. Sen. Alex Padilla, who the political media had described as leaning toward a run for governor, abruptly dropped out of consideration Tuesday during a news conference in Washington to discuss the federal government shutdown.

“With a full heart and even greater commitment than ever, I am choosing not to run for governor of California next year,” Padilla said. “I’m choosing not just to stay in the Senate, I’m choosing to stay in this fight.”

If he had chosen, it would have been Padilla the immediate favourite. By opting out, he adds himself to the list of seemingly tough contenders who have decided that governing California is not an attractive career move.

Lieut.-Governor First up was Eleni Kounalakis to go, dropping out in August, four months after announcing his candidacy. She was followed by former Vice President Kamala Harriswho wrote a book to explain how he failed to win the presidency last year. Tony Atkins, former president pro tem of the state Senate, also left, admitting that she probably couldn’t make it.

Padilla’s decision leaves a handful of declared Democratic candidates still running, but none with anything close to dominant status, along with several more prospects who have yet to declare one way or the other.

Of those who have declared, former congresswoman Katie Porter had an early lead in the polls, albeit below 20% support, but she was badly damaged when videos surfaced of her sharp reaction to a reporter’s question and snapping at one of her employees. Porter apologized, but the incidents undermined her appeal, which was no small feat politically.

Right now, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and former Attorney General and Biden cabinet member Xavier Becerra appear to have the best prospects among the declared candidates, but again, we’re waiting for other potential candidates to come in or out.

All eyes are on businessman Rick Caruso, who is weighing whether to run for governor or run again for mayor of Los Angeles. He lost his first mayoral bid to Karen Bass, but her popularity waned due to her handling of the city’s disastrous fires.

Austin Beutner, a businessman and former Los Angeles Unified School District superintendent, has already announced he will challenge Bass, putting some pressure on Caruso to reveal his intentions.

Wealthy investor Tom Steyer, who is running for president in 2020, has poured millions of dollars into his own Proposition 50 campaign, sparking speculation that he may run for governor.

Caruso and Steyer could easily finance gubernatorial campaigns, freeing themselves from the drudgery of raising money and thereby creating political debt to supporters. That alone would make them viable candidates.

Former state Superintendent Betty Yee and Tony Thurmond, the state superintendent of schools, are still listed as candidates but do not appear to be gaining ground.

Finally, there has been some buzz in the political media about Bay Area Congressman Eric Swwell after a private survey included his name.

Until the field becomes clearer, political media, would-be campaign contributors and California voters will just have to twiddle their fingers.

This article was originally published on CalMatters and is republished under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-No Derivatives license.