Report: Thanksgiving turkeys are 75% more expensive than this time last year

this year Turkey Thanksgiving dinner It will cost much more, as intense bird flu outbreaks threaten poultry populations and the availability of turkeys across the country.

Estimates, including those of Bernt Nelson, an economist at the American Farm Bureau Federation who spoke to New York TimesIt indicates that turkey prices could rise by 40%. A a report From the Purdue University College of Agriculture, wholesale turkey prices are showing at $1.71 per pound, a staggering 75% increase from October 2024.

Industry watchdog Farm Forward provided CNET with data showing the severity of the situation. About 3 million turkeys have died from highly pathogenic avian influenza, or HPAI, so far this year. This number already exceeds the total bird flu deaths in 2024 (1.25 million), although it is still far lower than the devastating outbreak in 2022, which killed more than 9 million birds.

That loss — which represents about 1.45% of the nation’s total turkey population — is pushing wholesale turkey prices up more than 26% compared to this time last year, government statistics show.

like Axios The U.S. turkey flock has reportedly fallen to its lowest level in four decades. The USDA expects production of just 4.8 billion pounds, which represents a 5% decrease from 2024.

Accelerating outbreak

The spread of HPAI has accelerated dramatically in recent months, ahead of the critical holiday season:

• There were 110 individual outbreaks on commercial turkey farms in 2025.
• The outbreak is growing: 34 commercial flocks of turkeys have been affected since August 2025, with 21 flocks infected in September alone and 15 flocks already affected in October.
• Minnesota leads the nation in losses, with 962,300 turkeys culled.
• Ohio had the largest number of outbreaks, with 41 individual farms affected (resulting in the deaths of 511,400 turkeys).

Federal policy under the microscope

While the immediate crisis impacts consumers’ wallets, Farm Forward argues that long-standing federal policies, maintained across multiple administrations, have created the conditions for the massive and sustained spread of avian influenza.

The organization asserts that the federal government and the poultry industry have prioritized profits over public health by allowing the operation of crowded intensive animal feeding facilities, resisting mandatory HPAI testing protocols, and refusing to implement vaccination programs for poultry, despite their effectiveness in other countries.