Redistribution of the Newsom victory may not be a victory for the Californians

From And WaltersCalmness

This comment was originally published by CalmattersS Register about their ballots.

Last week, as governor Gavin Newo signed legislation aimed at giving five more places at his Democratic Party congress, claiming that this would protect democracy, post offices throughout the country provide four pages, denying the Gerimander as a threat to democracy.

Newsom announced that Democrats should “play hardball” In response to President Donald Trump’s pursuit of Texas Other red countries should hold their own Gerimandri to strengthen the slender majority for Republicans in the House of Representatives.

“We tried to hold hands and talk about the way the world should be,” Newsom said. “We can’t just think differently, we have to act differently.”

However, Flyer presented a statement by Gloria Chun Hu, the president of the California head of the League of Women’s voters, denying Newsom’s efforts to cancel – temporarily, he promises – areas attracted by an independent, bilateral committee four years ago. Ther The organization is later emphasized She was not related to the coalition that sent her.

“California has become a national model for independent redistribution,” the Ho statement said. “Let us protect the integrity of our democratic process and reject the dangerous idea of ​​redistribution in the middle cycle.”

So in short, this is The question before the voters As they reflect on the fate of a proposal 50 in special elections on November 4. Flyer delivered to voters last Thursday is just the beginning of what will be a tsunami of mail, text messages, emails, video spots and other propaganda for and against the measure, led by tens of millions of dollars – perhaps hundreds of millions – from both parties and their auxiliary allies.

This suggests, of course, Trump intention To block California’s measure with a case of the Ministry of Justice fails.

The bets are huge. The most clear is whether Trump will continue to enjoy the control of GOP in both houses of Congress, but there is and has Effect on NEWSOM nascent campaign For the presidency in 2028

It is strange, however, that Newsom is played fundamentally for equality. Even if the voters approve of support 50 and he generates five more democratic members of the congress, this will simply compensate The five -seater profit that Republicans seek in Texas through your own new cards. Whether any Gerimander ultimately decides the 2026 election, it will not be won in California or Texas, but in other states – both red and blue – which are also considering redistribution.

Seems to be a wholly entire war of Gerimander, who is in favor of Republicans, Recently offered Wall Street JournalS

“Republicans have one-party control or majority of veto in more states and fewer railings around redirect cards,” the reporter said, adding: “More than a dozen red states and three blue countries are eligible for potential redistribution for 2026, without needing special elections or amending the state constitution.”

Sean Donahu, Professor of Political Science at the University of Buffalo, told the magazine that Republicans would take up to six places for home across the country from a completely swollen redistribution battle.

The script raises three questions about the Newsom -led redistribution in California.

Will his voters make the bidding?

Whether the rejection of prop. 50 Torpedo his presidential ambitions? And if Democrats acquired California places in 2026 but do not restore the house, will Newsom still take advantage?

The victory in November is not a helmet. New UC Berkeley Government Research SurveyFind support for cool: 48% of all voters and 55% among high -check voters. Professional campaign advisers working with voting measures usually suggest that supporters need about 60% initial support to have a strong chance of surviving in the opposition campaign.

While prop. 50 will be on the newsletter, this will also be a proxy war on the transcontinental feud between Trump and Newsom, and to some extent the rivalry between Newsom and other Democrats who may present themselves as presidential candidates in 2028.

This article was Originally Published on CalMatters and was reissued under Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Noderivatives License.