New California Cards for Fire Danger: What should homeowners know

From Ben ChristopherCalmness

This story was originally published by CalmattersS Register about their ballots.

New outbursts on the yellow dot The hills of Mendocino County.

Orange -burned orange, now cover the aqueduct near Bakersfield.

Fresh purple jackets east of Chico like a fresh wound.

With the exit of its fourth and last round of Color Coded Danger Cards This morning the California Fire Agency shows how much the state is prone to fire -And how much this calculated danger zone has grown since the state issued its last round of local danger cards more than a decade ago.

With a few remarkable areas in which the orange and red tide withdrew, with the hills over Berkli and Oklland, the territory considers that “tall” or “very high” danger exploded throughout the country, increasing by 168% since 2011.

All the said, the size of these orange and red spots of the new cards is 3 626 square miles – an area almost twice as big as Delaware.

This is the home of approximately 3.7 million people according to Calmatters analysis that combines cards with Population estimates of fine by the California researchers of the university.

This means that approximately 1 in 10 Californians are the subject of a number of construction codes, protective space and rules for real estate disclosure, all of which could have lasting effects on how people live, communities plan and housing markets function in the most speechless neighborhoods of the country.

The California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, Kalfif, has launched these contributions in the last six weeks, Starting with the counties in the far north of the state and ends today with Los Angeles, Orange County, San Diego and everything inside the south of the Owens Valley.

They cover only the cities where local fire services are responsible for fire management. The parts of the State in which Calfire is headed were canceled at the end of 2022 and also depicts a jump in the zones of dangerS Federal lands that represent about 45% of all land California is not included in any set of cards.

This is a project that has been working for years. But as a result of the January firestroke in Los Angeles, their release coincides with the updated public anxiety of the risk of fire, the fragile home insurance market and the development management in the development in puts the most frozen to burnS

Why is the danger zone growing?

Different colors come with different rules.

In orange “high” danger areas in the so -called local areas of responsibility, newly built homes must meet the increased fire resistant construction standards. Anyone who hopes to sell a home will also have to warn potential buyers of the increased danger with a disclosure form.

Housing owners who find themselves in the areas of “very high” dangers will be subject to these rules and others. They will also need to clear a 100-foot circle around their property without a brush, dead trees and other flammable materials. The new units will also need to be carefully designed with multiple evacuation routes, adequate water supply infrastructure and built -in fuel fractures on site.

In the field of state responsibility, all the above requirements apply to the three levels of danger.

In theory, the yellow, orange and red areas should not grow so much from a decade to a decade.

Unlike the assessment of the risk of an insurance company for a house in the forest, which can take into account its constituent lateral side wood or the end limbs of the tree, overhanging its roof, danger cards take into account only lasting facts for a place. This includes topography, climate and plant models. A home perched on the top of a steep hill, surrounded by a dense forest or occupying a known wind tunnel, is more likely to distort yellow, orange and red, regardless of its composition.

“The reason for mapping these areas is to bind these really important mitigating fire with them, helping us to ensure that while we are building new communities, we are building to the level of danger that exists, giving them an increased chance of surviving a fire,” said state -owned Marshal Daniel Berlat.

In other words, these cards are not intended to take into account whether people have hardened their homes or cleared their yards a brush. They are intended to emphasize the places where people should Do these things.

If the cards are based on predominantly invariable characteristics, why did the danger areas exploded in California, since they were last drawn up in 2011? Three reasons, Beralent said.

The first is climate change. The warming planet makes fuel more dry and Fiery time more severeS

The second is technological. New modeling methods have allowed Calfire’s internal wizards to judge more precisely where the danger is highest. Included among the new instruments are hyperlocal simulations of meteorological models and specific assessments of the size of the embar based on the vegetation of the area (burning grass makes small, ephemeral embers, burning trees spit larger and longer burning).

The third and perhaps important reason is legal. Although previous versions are distinguished between “moderate”, “high” and “very high” danger areas in areas under Calfire, the maps showed only the most dangerous bits of local areas for responsibility. State legislation in 2021 It required the department to draw up new cards showing all three categories for both local and government jurisdictions.

Beralent likes to emphasize the distinction between Calfire’s “danger” assessments and the risk calculations performed by insurance companies in an attempt to make what he said is the most common reaction to the new public members.

“” How will this affect my insurance? “This really becomes a number one driver,” he said.

For years, insurance companies have been Pull back from the wild fire zones in CaliforniaLeaving housing owners with few options, but the fair plan, a scarce policy of the last resort.

Beralent emphasizes that Calfire’s color cards will not tell the insurance conglomerations of everything they still don’t know.

“They already include these danger factors and then add a lot more to them to determine the availability and accessibility of their products,” he said.

Effect on housing insurance and prices

This can be a difficult sale to protect themselves from homeowners.

Oregon’s release state from their own danger cards in 2022 caused a A political reaction in many of the country’s rural countiesS Many housing owners have seen increased danger denotations as a kind of ally letter to certainly suppress property values ​​and invite insurance companies to increase tariffs. False rumors have begun to spread that anyone who has failed to update their homes to match the fireproof construction code will have their own Homes seized from the stateS

Nothing has reached a lot of fever in California yet. In Lake County, one of the regions of the country that observes the largest growth in its particular territory of danger, some local employees have publicly inflamed the state.

“They give us a public hearing process, which is only for lip service … The state has mainly removed this on our throat,” said Lakeport Patrick Reitz fire department in February, in February, According to the news of Lake CountyS Local authorities are required to take public comments for 90 days, but they have to approve of the cards without eliminating any dangers (although they are allowed to make additions).

In addition to any concern about insurance, the requirement of real estate sellers to disclose the level of danger to potential buyers, to add to the cost of living in the fire department in California. A 2023 study found that homes sold with this requirement for disclosure in California were sold an average of 4.3%, that comparable homes nearby outside the danger area.

“I think people in California, especially now, are aware of the risk of fire,” says Matthew Wibenmeier, an economist with ecological resources for a cerebral trust for the future and one of the authors of the study. But to sign a disclosure form, writing exactly what this risk involves “really makes this a more obvious factor in making decisions of people during the sale,” he said.

But many real estate agents in these fire -prone areas do not seem particularly concerned about cards – for now.

Dave Westal, President of the Taho Sierra Brokers Council, lists his main concerns about the local real estate market: lack of insurance, high interest rates and general economic uncertainty. Increasing the number of homes that will have to provide disclosures when they sell, it does not even break through the first ten.

“All our regions were in these areas with a high burden of fire as long as I remember,” he said. “We give people disclosures on fire as I don’t even know how long.”

This is the same story down at the foot in Obun, where Bill Evans is the director of the Real Estate Board in Pleser County. The new cards do not tell the locals about anything they no longer know, he said.

“We have long been dealing with areas for the burden of fire hazard for a long time,” Evans said. “Whether it appears when expanding a card or not, it will be a fair plan for this homeowner anyway.”

If nothing else, the cards will probably underestimate the degree of danger.

As Los Angeles Times reported in FebruaryOnly one fifth of the properties inside the scar of Ethan’s fire in Altadan were considered “very high” danger. Coffey Park, Santa Rosa, expelled from the TUBS fire in 2017, was miles away from the distinct red zone in previous Calfire maps.

This is because the danger cards are intended to predict the likelihood of wild fire, Beralent said, not “fires”.

“This is when a home ignited and it spread to the next and the next and the next – and then Miles in Altadena and the Pacific Palisades were destroyed,” he said.

The prediction of this type of disaster will require a model that takes into account more than natural topography, time and vegetation. You will need to take into account the heat generated and the heat produced when different types of homes, cars and RV rise into flames. The width and orientation of the roads that can serve as human fire is another possible contribution. You will also need to take into account how closely the buildings are packed together, and Leading prediction whether the home burns In these fires.

“It will have to be our focus in the future,” he said.

This article was Originally Published on CalMatters and was reissued under Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Noderivatives License.