It’s MAGA versus Broligarch in the battle over prediction markets

Hello and welcome organizer, Newsletter for edge Subscribers about the love-hate (but mostly hate) relationship between Silicon Valley and Washington. I hope everyone celebrates George Washington’s birthday in their favorite way: skiing, staying, Subscribe to Edge If you haven’t alreadyetc.

Prediction: This is going to be a mess

Political alliances are rarely permanent, so it’s somewhat predictable that the MAGA-tech alliance appears to have collapsed within a year. However, it was difficult to predict which side the administration would actually choose.

Last winter, the relationship between the two groups appeared to be fragile, held together by Elon Musk’s shameful implementation of the DOGE agenda and Big Tech companies signing huge checks to settle lawsuits filed against them by Donald Trump. But last night, the Trump administration made a choice: money. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) announced that it will prosecute any state that tries to regulate prediction markets like Calcci — even Republican states.

On Tuesday, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission foot Friend brief To the Ninth Circuit Court of Appealsofficially opposes the onslaught of lawsuits filed by states against betting markets like Kalshi, Polymarket, Coinbase, and crypto.com. (The latter two companies, known primarily as cryptocurrency exchanges, have partnered with Kalshi and created an independent prediction market called OG, respectively.) But unusually, the brief was accompanied by a threat — posted on X, of all places. In a straight-to-camera video posted Tuesday evening, the CFTC’s sole head said… Michael Selig He asserted his commission’s authority to regulate prediction markets and stated that the federal government was prepared to sue: “To those who seek to challenge our authority in this area, let me be clear: we will see you in court.”

If Selig had simply written a mortgage Wall Street Journal Editorial asserts CFTC authority (Which he did too)This would hardly raise an eyebrow. But in 2026, a video threat, especially one posted on spencer cox, The Republican governor of Utah happily obliged. “Mike, I appreciate you trying to do this with a straight face, but I don’t recall the CFTC having jurisdiction over the ‘derivatives market’ for LeBron James rebounds.” Post a reply (also to X). “These prediction markets that you defend so relentlessly are gambling – plain and simple. They are ruining the lives of families and countless Americans, especially young people. They have no place in Utah.” He promised that Utah would continue to pursue lawsuits and take on the federal government in court if necessary.

This wouldn’t be the first time Utah and Cox have expressed opposition to federal overreach regarding emerging technology. Last year, they publicly opposed an executive order that would have given the Justice Department the power to prosecute states that pass and implement AI regulatory laws. The issue of prediction markets hits a particular nerve in Utah: Nearly half the state is Mormon, and The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints officially opposes all forms of government-sanctioned gamblingAnd even the state lottery. But Cox’s announcement is what’s known in political circles as a “wind vane”: If one staunchly Republican state is resisting the Trump administration on a new front, who else on the right might follow suit — and what kinds of new technologies might they fight against?

Is it a coincidence that the Anthropic CEO Dario AmodeiDid Trump’s big visit to Washington occur at a time when the Pentagon was reconsidering its relationship with the artificial intelligence company? During the past two weeks, Amodei published a 38-page letter to Congress And a warning of the increasing existential risks of artificial intelligence He gave an interview to Axios Mike Allen (and sponsor their newsletter), and He met with Sens. Elizabeth Warren (d-ma) f Jim Banks (R-IN) on Capitol Hill To support their bill banning the sale of advanced AI chips to China.

But Amodei had barely finished his assault on the Capitol when Axios broke the news over the weekend that the Pentagon had not only lost patience with Anthropic’s reticence to use Claude for unrestricted purposes, but that It will be actively punishment Anthropic to refuse to cooperate By classifying it as a “supply chain risk.” If the order is implemented, any company that wants to work with the military will be forced to sever its ties with Anthropic. As one Pentagon official described it: “It’s going to be very painful to disentangle, and we’re going to make sure they pay the price for forcing us to do it that way.”

The Pentagon’s move doesn’t make sense to anyone who sees Cloud as a superior enterprise AI product compared to its Pentagon competitors (Gemini, ChatGPT, and Grok). If we look through the lens of every previous interaction Trump has had with companies that have expressed ideological opposition to his agenda, their engagement with Anthropology is par for the course. Years ago, for example, Trump threatened to cut off Amazon’s access to its sweetheart deal with the US Postal Service, in response to Jeff Bezos’s highly critical ownership of Amazon at the time. The Washington Post.

But for me the question is: exactly What What caused this ideological divide, and to what extent was it related to national security? In the past few months, there’s been a strange wave of messages online from right-wing influencers trying to claim that Anthropic, of all AI companies, was hyper-woke — the kind of wokeness that could convince kids to become trans, DEI pill them, or whatever crypto-nightmares a MAGA character could dream up. There wasn’t much evidence they could point to, other than their employees expressing opinions that could be coded, if you don’t read the entire tweet in its entirety:

Speaking of influencers eating their own food:

The White House is holding a third meeting between the cryptocurrency industry and the banking industry this week, continuing to debate which major financial entity can earn interest from yield-bearing stablecoin accounts (or if it should bear interest at all). They have until March 1 to submit draft language to the Senate. Good luck to all of you!

Finally, maxxing vacation appears.

Can we all agree that Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy It is the frame Kid Rock In this video?

See you next week, and send all the tips in In all the ways we mention here.