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This comment was originally published by CalmattersS Register about their ballots.
Governor Gavin Newo and his colleagues Democrats in the legislature direct California to a unique political course with an unpredictable result.
Through the Gerrymandering of the 52nd Congress regions of the state, which produce at least five more members of the Democrats, they claim to protect democracy from President Donald Trump’s power. Trump is pressing Texas and other red states to rearrange their congress areas to protect the subtle majority of the Republican Congress of Congress of Election next year.
“Wake up, America,” Newsom said on Thursday at a rally in Los Angeles, launching a campaign for redistribution efforts. “Wake up with what Donald Trump does. Wake up at your attack. Wake up to the attack on institutions and knowledge and history. Wake up to your war against science, public health, his war against the American people.”
The three Newsom package is almost certain that this week will pass, putting Gerrymander on a November 4th vote. If approved by voters, new cards It will be available for three election cycles, but the independent state redistribution committee will again revise them after the 2030 census – or at least Newsom promises to do so.
As no one can predict how all this will turn out, the situation invites to explore potential scenarios.
For example, Newsom says, Constitutional Amendment of Assembly 8 He actually says. The proposal will become operational, ACA 8 says: “Only if Texas, Florida or other country accepts a new map of the Congress area, which enters into force after August 1, 2025 and before January 1, 2031, and such a redistribution is not required by a federal court order.”
In other words, if for some reason Texas or other Gerimander of the red state does not appear, California can still be activated if any other state, including another blue country like Illinois, also rearranges its areas. This is a door big enough to run a semi -trailer.
Let’s say that Gerrymander is activated for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections and gives the Democrats at least 48 of the 52nd places in the state. Would the Democrats actually be ready to redeploy a redistribution back to the independent committee after the 2030 census?
Due to comparatively stagnant population growthCalifornia is destined to Lose to four seats After the census. The Democrats who win Gerimander regions in 2026 would like to refuse them. There may be tremendous pressure to protect them by returning to redistribution through the legislature, a system that has existed for many decades before the establishment of the Commission process in 2008.
If the Chamber were as closely divided in 2030 as it was now, the Democrats would also have all reason to compensate for the shrinking of the Congress delegation in California, again minimizing republican places.
The precedent for such a lure and switching maneuver is what happened after voters agreed to collect state taxes in 2012. Although it is Vote said the new taxes would be temporary, another Union -sponsored vote measure Four years later, they retain higher income taxes in force from 12 years to 2030 and the same interests plan to look for another extension.
And finally, although it seems certain that the package that also includes Assembly Bill 604 In order to describe the new areas in detail and Senate Bill 280 To call the special elections, you will earn legislative approval this week, voter approval is definitely uncertain. Election shows Lukurini arepport At best, Republicans will install a well-funded driving for rejection, given that the control of the house can be a bet.
The rejection would be a black eye for Newsom, which apparently sees the maneuver as improving its national political status and probably its chances of becoming a presidential candidate in 2028.
This article was Originally Published on CalMatters and was reissued under Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Noderivatives License.