Here’s who benefits from Swawell dropping out of the governor’s race

from Dan WaltersCalMatters

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On Sunday afternoon, during the telecast of the San Francisco Giants-Baltimore Orioles baseball game, an ad appeared accusing Congressman Eric Swwell of avoiding tough votes in Congress.

The ad came from Tom Steyer, a billionaire investor who saw Swawell as his toughest opponent among the gubernatorial candidates this year. The two challengers and former Congresswoman Katie Porter are the only Democrats not mired in low, single-digit support in the polls.

A few hours later, after the Giants lost, Swalwell released a statement on X saying he was suspending his candidacy in response to allegations that he had sexually harassed or assaulted several women.

Detailed accounts of these crimes were published by San Francisco Chronicle and CNN on Friday, confirming rumors that have been swirling in the political media for several days.

Swawell denied any wrongdoing before Friday’s revelations, and after they emerged, released a video in which he continued that denial but apologized to his wife for “errors in judgment” and to the public “if in any way you doubted your support for me.”

“But I think you know who I am,” he continued, an odd statement in light of what had been published.

His refusals had absolutely no effect. His core supporters – mainly unions – and Democratic Party leaders have called on him to drop his campaign.

“I’m suspending my campaign for governor,” Swawell posted on X Sunday night. “To my family, staff, friends and supporters, I am deeply sorry for the errors of judgment I have made in my past. I will fight against the serious, false allegations that have been made – but this is my fight, not a campaign.”

Swalwell is clearly political toast. But suspending his gubernatorial campaign may not stop his fall.

There is already pressure for him to resign from the Congress or Congress leaders to expel him. And a prosecutor in New York has opened a criminal investigation into an alleged assault in that city.

Outside his congressional district in the eastern suburbs of the San Francisco Bay Area, Swawell was known, if at all, as a media-savvy politician who made a name for himself as a vocal critic of President Donald Trump.

On that basis alone, his campaign illustrates a strategy almost completely devoid of any serious debate about California’s many problems, such as homelessness, poverty, water supply, a sluggish economy and a state budget drenched in red ink.

However, where does the campaign go now, with voting in the state’s first two primaries starting in a few weeks?

Swawell’s withdrawal — though he will still be one of 61 candidates listed on the ballot — means that whatever support he had — voters and campaign financiers — is expected to go elsewhere.

On the face of it, it seems like Porter will benefit because the allegations against Swawell certainly infuriate women, given the pattern of men in high positions who have been portrayed as serial abusers. And Porter may need an injection of support as he hasn’t fared well in recent polls.

A Democratic poll released last week found her down a few percentage points to 7 percent, while Steyer and Swawell were tied at 10 percent. The poll also found Republicans Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco still leading the pack with 16 percent and 14 percent, respectively.

Steyer, the only other top-tier candidate, is spending lavishly from his own fortune, so he doesn’t need money from Swawell’s former backers.

If any of the five members of the Democratic Party bottom line prospered from Swawell’s departure, it might be San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan. His campaign is planning a major media push with the backing of Silicon Valley.

Hopefully, the weirdest gubernatorial election in recent history will finally focus more on substance and less on image and sound bites.

This article was originally published on CalMatters and is republished under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-No Derivatives license.