Drama at high temperatures in the future of quantum computing

On March 18, Chetan Nayak, a physicist driving a quantum Microsoft team, presented new data on The company’s quantum computing slice At the Summit of World Physics of the American Physical Association in Anaim, California. It was supposed to calm a raging discussion between physicists, but researchers It remains skeptical From the results. “I never felt that there will be one moment when everyone is completely convinced,” Nayak said nature In the March 18 article.

the Controversy The centers on Microsoft February claim that they have built a new type of quantum devices – which is Qubit Tobiti made of a pattern of electrons on a small wire. Microsoft claimed that Qubit is less vulnerable to mistakes. This makes quantum computers easier to expand the scope of something large enough to be really useful. But in the article accompanying the release, editors wrote that Microsoft did not appear conclusively Electrons that make up the signing styleKnown as Majurana Zero modes. In 2021, Microsoft I had to retract a similar claim.

“Speech and suspicion are all part of the scientific process,” says Craig Crevota, a spokeswoman for Microsoft. freedom. It indicates additional improvements since that accompanying article, where Microsoft says that the team has controlled and measured a specific side of Qubit.

The physicist Sergei Vololov of the University of Pittsburg says that the latest data provided by Microsoft on Tuesday is “noise”. (On Tuesday, Nayak acknowledged that the sign was difficult to see due to the electric noise.)

In a statement, he tells Nayak freedom Microsoft is confident of its devices. “It is clear that the level of interest and excitement is very high,” he says.

In addition to the controversy, the industry suffers from noise. The quantum computer heroes say they will revolutionize material science, encryption and financing. Theoretical research indicates that it can one day overcome regular computers at certain tasks that take a long time and open new worlds of computing. But the schedule is not certain. In January, Nafidia Sinson Huang By doubt This commercial quantum computing will be present in 15 years, which leads to a decrease in quantum computing shares. Try to walk in these comments on March 20, when he hosted “Quantum Day” at the GTC conference at NVIDIA, however Quantum -relevant stocks decreased again.

However, quantum computing researchers were working hard. In recent months, Google, Amazon and many of the startups have announced a series of additional improvements. We left we wondering about the period that consumers will have to wait for the quantum computing killer applications. Do quantum computers come to the cloud or your phone in the future? What and who are they?

The physicist Andrea Morello of the New South Wales University in Australia says quantum computers will not be able to process anything useful for at least another contract. This is if investors do not lose patience and jump. This technology remains a complete problem, from material engineering to Qubits, to the connection of Qubits together, and the manufacture of chips on a large scale-and not to mention programs.

Investors are committed because the returns can be huge. Quantum computers provide a completely new computing model. Unlike the traditional computer, which codes the information as a bilateral and zero procedure, the quantum computer represents the information as one possibility and zero, known as the overlap. The overlap is a concept of quantum mechanics: for example, an electron can be found as a karabb, or a possibility, for multiple sites. You can also think of overlap like a metal currency that flips in the air. Before you land, it is not heads or tails, but in the case of overlap both. Likewise, Qubit can represent information as some of the possibility of each one and zero.

Researchers make physical Qubits from different materials – for Google, Amazon and IBM, each Qubit is a small super delivery circle; Prospectful startups use ions, atoms and photons such as Qubits. At this stage, it is not clear what the best materials.

All Qubits obeys quantum mechanics. As well as molecules. For this reason, experts expect that a useful application can be implemented early for quantum computers Simulation of precise and fast chemistryTo discover new materials for better batteries, more climate -friendly fertilizers, and new medical medications. Currently, to simulate these reactions, scientists rely on giant computers, which are inaccurate and slow.

Quantity can speed up other industries, as well. Banks investigate quantum improved algorithms Improving financial expectations. The quantum algorithms can make the AI ​​algorithms more efficient in energy. They should also be able to break the current encryption methods; The prediction has motivated the research in More powerful forms of encryption.

But first, researchers need to reduce errors in a quantum computer in general and make them larger.

And when quantum computers become useful, ordinary consumers should not expect as personal devices. Experts currently imagine Future quantum computers as a special specialty in the super computer or as Data center. Either way, users will reach the device through the cloud. It is also unlikely that the quantum computers will be useful for daily tasks such as text processing or internet surfing. Its proposed applications are largely specialized for technical fields such as medicines and financing.

The last progress was encouraging. The first quantum computers, which were created in the past decade, have suffered from a very mistake to implement useful algorithms. Recently, researchers have discovered how to correct computing errors by coding one unit of information in multiple Qubits instead of one. Using this approach, Google and Amazon It has shown that their quantum computers can store information more reliably without making machines becoming more likely to make. The results can pave the way for the largest and useful quantum computers.

However, a jump for physicists is an inch front for the rest of us. Google and Amazon quantity “Memory” stored only one unit of quantum information, known as the logical Qubit. A useful quantum computer will need thousands, and perhaps a million material buildings, meet hundreds or thousands of logical Qubits. Researchers need to reduce the physical number of Qubits to encrypt a unit of information. In the last Amazon advertisement, they only needed the physical Qubits for each unit of information, compared to the physical 105 Qubits needed by Google. “We are far from the results and large changing applications of the mind and the world’s change,” said Morillo.

The United States, the European Union and UK governments have pledged billions of finance to develop quantum computing. For the United States, the main competitor is China, which poured 15 billion dollars in public financing In quantum computing, according to the Miratur Institute for China Studies, a German -based research center.

Criticism was flowing in the private sector, as well. Crunchbase I mentioned that Summary computing received $ 1.5 billion from project financing around the world in 2024The highest level ever compared to the previous number of $ 963 million in 2022.

But building technology is difficult. Researchers must show progress to keep their investors happy, while eliminating their expectations to keep them patient. Anxiety is the potential “quantum winter”, as excessive pattern leads to enlarged expectations and disappointment, and investors withdraw funding. The development of artificial intelligence, such as cooling ages, has been underwent. The researchers made the first chatbot of artificial intelligence in the 1960s, but the field was excessively optimistic about the speed of development. When they did not surrender, Financiers withdrawAnd, which led to the “artificial intelligence winter” from the late 1960s to the mid -1990s.

“People prefer to maintain a low profile, including a kind of terrible and little screaming, so that they can continue to make benefits slowly,” says Frolov. “But I think it is a very accurate balance. It has a chance of boredom, or really excessive expression and anger,” when it does not provide quantum computers according to their expectations.

Anxiety about the loss of financiers has led to the current anger of physicists on Microsoft’s claims. Besides many other researchers, Ferolov spent years in calling what he said was a difference between Microsoft ads and their experimental data. Society seems to be more acceptable to criticism recently, he says.

These are the increasing pain in building a quantum computer. Its potential remains attractive, but the finish line is still far. Meanwhile, physicists will continue to progress – as long as the money continues to flow.