Democrats have performed much better than expected

If you like I, Steve Kornacki are as loved by your aunt as he is in your group chats. He has become a staple of Election Day coverage, spending long hours on the big panel and doing copious amounts of advance preparation.

His intimate knowledge of key counties and voter turnout trends not only made him indispensable to many Americans on election night, but also a celebrity. I met with him early this morning to talk about Tuesday night’s election results.

We break down what the returns mean ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, where Democrats are currently holding onto their votes 8 percentage points behind Republicans In the latest NBC News poll, and what they say about President Donald Trump’s agenda for a second term. We also talked about what surprised him in the New Jersey governor’s race, whether Trump’s base is weakening, and of course New York Mayor-elect Zahran Mamdani’s historic win. With the midterm elections approaching, Kornacki is taking on an expanded role at NBC News following parent company Comcast’s decision to spin off its cable TV properties, including the soon-to-be rebranded MSNBC.

Kornacki isn’t someone to bet big on off-year elections, but the breadth and depth of Democratic victories suggests a political environment that has changed dramatically in the year since Trump’s election — and if anyone can find some important details to follow moving forward, it’s Steve.

This interview has been edited for length and clarity.

WIRED: Steve, thanks for joining us after a long night. Before we get into the meat and potatoes here, let’s start with a quick detour: How much sleep did you get, how much did you get, and can you tell us if you have any election night superstitions?

Steve Kornacki: Well, I aimed for zero, so I’m not disappointed, so I’m surprised with everything I’m getting, which I think was about two and a half last night.

Here we go.

So this isn’t too bad. Superstitions? I don’t know about that. My challenge is just adjusting for all the anecdotal Election Day turnout data. I just think it’s a ton of noise that starts messing with your head.

What surprised you from last night?

What struck me was – perhaps not the most original observation this morning – but New Jersey. (Representative Mikie Sherrill, the Democratic candidate, received more than 56 percent of the votes.) And the margin there for Sherrill, which is about 13 points, is much more than expected. I mean, I was talking to Democrats on Election Day who were telling me, “She ran a terrible campaign, she wasn’t a good candidate. Maybe she’ll still win because of Trump, but it will be too close.” I mean, that was a widely shared bipartisan view, that Sherrill ran a poor campaign and was in danger of losing, and that was not the case at all.