Democrats face Darrell Issa in hopes of turning a red seat blue

from Deborah BrennanCalMatters

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Eleven Democrats are vying to unseat Rep. Darrell Issa, R-San Diego, after California’s redistricting measure turned his reliably red district slightly blue in what will be a key race in next year’s midterm elections.

Congressman Mike Levin, D-San Clemente, can breathe easier as Proposition 50 draws new boundaries that make his district safer Democratic.

The new voting card reflects California’s bid to offset Texas’ efforts to secure control of the House by adding five Republican seats in November. California voters approved the redistricting plan proposed in Proposition 50 by nearly 20 points in a special election this month.

Both redistricting efforts have been embroiled in litigation. On Tuesday a federal court blocks Texas from using his new maps, finding that they would harm black and Latino voters in that state. Last week, the US Department of Justice sued for overturning California mapsclaiming they illegally counted Hispanic voters in the new districts.

If California’s redistricting plan survives that challenge, the new ballot map could help Democrats flip San Diego’s only Republican seat. The 48th Congressional District, represented by Issa, will go from a 12-point Republican lead to a 4-point Democratic lead, based on voter registration.

A bunch of Democrats

The more favorable odds have drawn a wide field of challengers, including Issa’s former opponent Amar Campa-Najjar, who lost to Issa in a previous 2020 redistricting, San Diego City Council member Marnie von Wilpert and several Coachella Valley challengers.

The passage of the redistricting measure set off a state game of musical chairs, moving the chairs as well as the players.

The current 48th District covers conservative communities in East San Diego County. The new area moved west and north, losing much of this backwater and adding the northern San Diego County cities of Escondido, San Marcos, and Vista. It also includes ultra-liberal Palm Springs in Riverside County, where Democratic voters outnumber Republicans by more than four to one.

Those new lines absorb part of Riverside County’s current 41st District, represented by longtime Republican Rep. Ken Calvert. His current district will shift entirely to Los Angeles and Orange County, so Calvert plans to run in the new 40th District in Riverside and Orange County against fellow Republican Rep. Young Kim.

Meanwhile, three Coachella Valley Democrats who were among eight contenders against Calvert for his area Riverside County have now jumped into the race against Isa. Attorney Anuj Dixit, school board member Abel Chavez and entrepreneur Brandon Riker have shifted gears to campaign for the new 48th District. Another Palm Springs candidate, Mark Iannarino, a Navy veteran and bartender, has thrown his hat in the ring. Political observers note that Coachella Valley candidates come from a smaller and more liberal part of the new district.

“These are three candidates who really know Palm Springs, but they need to reach moderate, purple voters and know who the San Diego voters are,” said Dan Rothenstreich, Von Wilpert’s campaign manager.

“It’s not a deep blue seat,” Rothenstreich said. “It’s going to be among the top five most hotly contested races in the country.”

Who can win the swing competition?

Von Wilpert and Campa-Najar, the two highest-profile contenders, each claim to be the best candidate to navigate the narrow party advantage.

Both have prominent endorsements. Former Sen. Barbara Boxer, numerous state and local leaders and Democratic Women’s Political Action Committeewoman Emily List endorse Von Wilpert. A number of members of Congress, including San Diego Reps. Mike Levin, Scott Peters and Sarah Jacobs, have come out in support of Campa-Najar.

All the contenders face an established incumbent for a district that — despite its partisan shift — will still be a toss-up.

Von Wilpert, a former prosecutor in the San Diego City Attorney’s Office, won a seat on the City Council in 2020 by running against a Republican opponent in a conservative-leaning district, Rottenstreich said

“With these new lines, CA-48 is becoming one of the most competitive races in America and a must-win seat to change the House,” von Wilpert said in a statement on Election Day. “I am the only candidate in this race who has proven that I can win tough elections, turn red seats blue, and get results for working families.”

Campa-Najjar, a Navy officer and former Obama campaign staffer, said his attempt to run against Issa in 2020 positions him to win the Democratic and independent votes in the new district.

“I see it as a rematch between me and Darrell Issa, with 10 other candidates,” he said. “I’m not running against them. I have a lot of respect for them, but only one of us will win.”

Although he lost in 2020, Campa-Najjar said he held on in the conservative district, getting more votes than expected in the Republican-majority district.

Can Isa keep her place?

Issa has served in Congress for more than 20 years in various fields. He originally held the 49th District — now represented by Levin — from 2001 to 2019 and retired when that district became competitive. In 2020, he won his current seat, holding it for the next two terms after it was redrawn during the 2021 statewide redistricting.

Issa declined to answer questions from CalMatters, but in a statement he called Proposition 50 “an unprecedented, purely partisan campaign that has pitted neighbor against neighbor and divided the state like never before.”

Still, Issa said he plans to run again: “I’m not going anywhere. I’m going to continue to represent the people of California — regardless of their party or where they live.”

The general election will reflect voters’ opinions of President Donald Trump; historical the president’s party usually loses ground in the interim terms. Issa, a close Trump ally who supports the president’s policies and nominated him for the Nobel Peace Prize, will have to rely on that record, Kusser said.

“He needs to embrace it with his base and prove to the middle that the Trump presidency has been good for their district,” he said.

A crowded Democratic field could hinder some candidates in the primary, Kusser said. But it is likely to benefit the party in next November’s general election, forcing contenders to campaign and gain traction with voters.

“Whoever emerges as the Democratic nominee is going to be up for a fight in this district,” he said.

A coastal swing region shifts to the left

The redistricting measure also bolstered Democratic hot spots, including Levin’s 49th District. It moved south, adding the San Diego coastal communities of La Jolla and Torrey Pines. Now 65% of the current district is in San Diego County; in the new district, that climbs to 81 percent, Levin said.

With that comes more Democratic voters and even more leftist voters. The current district has a two percent Democratic voter registration margin, which jumps to four percent under the new lines. But the Democratic advantage jumps to 12 percent when you compare the number of votes cast for former Vice President Kamala Harris against Trump in last year’s election.

This positions Levin more securely in his re-election race. He faces Republican San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond, along with two other Republicans and one nonpartisan candidate.

“Moving this district south makes it bluer in terms of Democratic registrations and independent political leanings,” said Paul Mitchell, a political data expert who drew California’s new voting lines. “So this area for him is a big improvement.”

This article was originally published on CalMatters and is republished under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-No Derivatives license.