Democrats are split on who can defeat Valladao

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California Democrats eager to take back the U.S. House of Representatives agree they must win of current Central Valley Republican Rep. David Valadao.

But they cannot agree on who should be their rival.

Months ahead of a critical primary, there is a sharp division among liberal activists over which Democratic candidate can unseat Valladão in a conservative-leaning, working-class district where a significant portion of Hispanic voters have switched from supporting former President Joe Biden in 2020 to supporting President Donald Trump in 2024.

The dilemma in the 22nd Congressional District, which is likely to be the focus of attention in California this year, epitomizes a broader tug-of-war in the party over how Democrats can win back voters they lost in 2024: either by playing to the center, as successful gubernatorial candidates in New Jersey and Virginia did last fall, or by adopting a progressive brand of economic populism which fueled Zohran Mamdani’s rise to mayor of New York.

Influential political figures in Sacramento and Washington, D.C., including California’s massive SEIU union, several California legislators and Emily’s List, joined the assembly Jasmeet Bains . The moderate state lawmaker may also highlight his work as a full-time Medi-Cal doctor and wildfire paramedic in a year when Democrats want to focus on federal health care cuts. In addition, he has repeatedly voted against his Democratic legislative leadership and even lost his committee appointments after a dispute with the former Speaker of the Assembly over a vote he did not like.

“I’m loyal to my district, not to a party or a label,” Baines said in an interview with CalMatters. “I didn’t study politics. I studied my community from a doctor’s perspective. And what the Central Valley wants are people who prioritize them in Washington.”

But a grassroots movement led by local Democratic county chairmen is backing Randy Villegas, a political newcomer and college professor who has embraced progressive policy platforms like Medicare for All and caps on prescription prices and some procedures. Villegas argued that diseases like diabetes and cancer do not discriminate, so universal health care would benefit the working class regardless of their political ideology.

“This is not a battle of left vs. right. This is a battle between those at the bottom and those at the top, and against the people of the Central Valley who have been abandoned by politicians who have sold them out in both parties,” Villegas told CalMatters. “As for utilities and mortgage, those bills don’t require your party affiliation, and neither does this campaign.”

While Baines refrained from sharing specific policy priorities, Villegas devoted an entire section of his campaign website to explaining his ambitious plans for how he would fight to implement universal family leave and child care, raise the minimum wage to $25 an hour, ban members of Congress from buying and selling in the stock market and introduce term limits in Congress.

Villegas also accepted the endorsements of the Working Families Party and U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, against the advice of mainstream Democratic strategists who warned they could be used against him in attack ads. He even hired Mamdani’s media adviser, the 26-year-old prodigy Maurice Katz, whose commercials They present the Democratic candidates as close and solid neighbors, instead of elegant, well-coiffed professionals.

Both candidates are also using their ethnic and valley identities to woo voters.

Villegas often talks about how his parents, Mexican immigrants who came to the United States in search of work, inspired him to excel in school, earn a doctorate and become a teacher. Villegas was born and raised in Bakersfield and now teaches political science courses at the College of the Redwoods in Visalia. He also serves on the public school board and owns an auto dealership with his father.

Baines also emphasizes her roots in the Valley, from her childhood as the daughter of Indian immigrants in Delano to completing her residency at a health center serving low-income residents in Bakersfield. He still sees patients on weekends when he’s not in Sacramento for legislative sessions. Baines is the first Sikh elected to public office in California and the first South Asian woman in the legislature.

Which Democrat can win?

California delegates will meet next week at the party’s state convention in San Francisco to decide who they will support in the races in 2026. Both campaigns say they will support whoever wins the June primary. But with the House majority at stake and the ability to block Trump’s agenda, the stakes are much higher in choosing the right candidate.

“We can’t lose,” said Tia Orr, executive director of the influential Service Employees International Union of California, which has endorsed Baines. “We have no choice but to win,” Orr added, “and we believe she is the one who can win.”

A SEIU California-funded poll last fall showed Baines tied with Valladao, while Villegas trailed the Republican incumbent.

Villegas’ supporters dispute the idea that running as a “Valleycrat” — or a Valley Democrat known for taking more conservative positions than his Democratic colleagues in the Legislature on key local industries like oil and agriculture — is the only way to defeat Valladao, who also tried to run as a moderate Republican.

“We keep supporting these moderate Democrats — I consider myself a moderate Democrat in general — but we keep losing,” said Christian Romo, chairman of the Kern County Democrats and a former high school classmate of Villegas. “Because?”

Romo noted that Valadao’s last challenger, former Rep. Rudy Salas, who has often irritated his progressive colleagues in Sacramento, lost twice by wide margins. Rooms He became known for going against his party by voting against Gov. Jerry Brown’s plan to increase the gas tax. The only Democrat to defeat Valladao was former Rep. TJ Cox, a more left-leaning candidate who rode the Democratic wave to victory during Trump’s 2018 midterms.

“People said, ‘Well, Randy doesn’t stand a chance because he’s so progressive,'” Romo said. “Well, the only one who beat Valadao was the candidate who was a little more progressive in his ideals.”

Notably, Valadao regained his position two years later by defeating Cox in a rematch. (Cox too pleaded guilty to wire fraud and the face one year in federal prison ).

Villegas and Bains give different reasons why they should be considered favorites.

Villegas, whose fundraising has surpassed Bains’ despite his pledge to forgo corporate donations, has about $100,000 more cash on hand than Bains, according to campaign finance records . He also received the support of 55 percent of the Democratic delegates in his district in a recent vote before the convention. Baines got 45%.

But Baines and his supporters argue that he has the advantage of his position and his name in the district. His assembly district, located in Kern County, overlaps significantly with the most populous part of the congressional district, meaning he already represents many of the same people.