California’s redistricting battle draws $140 million in spending

from Maya S. Miller and Jeanne KuangCalMatters

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California, listen up: Former President Barack Obama wants you to know that the entire nation is counting on you this November.

“Democracy is on the ballot,” the 44th president says straight to camera in the latest ad from Gov. Gavin Newsom’s campaign for Proposition 50the ballot question that prompts voters to temporarily govern California’s congressional districts to support Democrats.

“Republicans want to steal enough seats in Congress to rig the next election and hold unchecked power for two more years,” Obama continued in the seven-figure ad that aired in California, referring to GOP-led redistricting efforts that President Donald Trump has supported in other states like Texas. “With Prop. 50, you can stop Republicans in their tracks.”

As voters face a Nov. 4 deadline to cast their ballots, California’s redistricting battle has reached a fever pitch as both sides pour tens of millions of dollars into their latest effort to persuade and mobilize voters. The Yes side largely outspent its opponents, bringing in nearly $97 million — more than double the No side’s $42 million haul — and attracting many more big names to appear in its ads.

Still, recent polls suggest the race remains close and persuasion in recent weeks is critical for both sides. While opponents of Proposition 50 are going all-in on a message of good governance and playing on most voters’ unease with politicians drawing their own districts, supporters of the measure are doubling down on anti-Trump rhetoric. Both campaigns are trying to woo Latino voters, a key constituency that could swing the election.

A survey from the nonpartisan Cook Political Report earlier this month found that although 50% of registered voters said they would support Prop. Between 50 and 35% said they would oppose, nearly half of respondents indicated they were undecided or only mildly committed to their vote. The survey included 918 registered voters with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.

There’s still plenty of time to influence voters, especially those who are just getting used to the fact that an election is happening. If voters approve Proposition 50, California would temporarily accept mock maps drawn by Democrats until 2030 and suspend those drawn by an independent citizen redistricting commission just four years ago. The ballot question informed voters that California’s redistricting was a direct response to Texas Republicans’ decision to redraw their district lines in the middle of the decade.

And when it comes to persuasion, money is crucial.

More than 68,000 people have given money to support the Yes on Prop campaign. 50 as of July, according to campaign finance data analyzed by CalMatters, with the largest contributions coming from the House Majority PAC, controlled by congressional Democrats, and the Policy Reform Fund, controlled by Democratic megadonor George Soros. That doesn’t include the nearly $13 million that billionaire investor Tom Steyer spent separately to run its own ads in support of the measure.

By contrast, only 200 contributors gave to the two separate No campaigns, including a whopping $30 million from wealthy Republican physicist Charles Munger Jr., who funded efforts in 2008 and 2010 to create an independent state redistricting commission.

“‘No’ has a steeper hill to climb, there’s no doubt about that,” said Amy Walter, publisher and editor-in-chief of the Cook Political Report. She explained that opponents of Prop. 50 will not only have to harden their wavering supporters and ensure they vote, but also convince all undecided voters and also convert some of the wavering voters with “yes”.

But working in the opposition’s favor is widespread unease at the idea of ​​elected officials influencing the shape of their districts. About 56 percent of Cook’s poll respondents who indicated they were likely to vote Yes said they agreed politicians should not draw their own regional lines.

“If you’re the No campaign, that’s the only place you can see that you can get some traction,” Walter said.

Opportunity to Prop. 50 opponents

Opponents of Prop. 50 is trying hard to capitalize on this discomfort in their latest ads.

“Prop. 50 is setting us back and taking power away from the people,” an unidentified woman tells viewers in a recent No on 50 ad. Then the statement “Politicians can rig elections” flashes across the screen in bold red and black text.

Jessica Millen Patterson, a former chairwoman of the state Republican Party who is leading the No on 50 campaign backed by House Republicans, said she is targeting independents and Democrats who are disaffected with the party. That means focusing on a narrow, simple message of good governance to win over undecided voters.

Milan Patterson isn’t concerned with mobilizing the Republican base, she said, adding that the Yes campaign is already doing that for her by demonizing Trump and deifying Newsom, whom conservatives despise. In a little nod to party faithfulthe campaign is running an ad criticizing the governor. This beats it in affordability.

“We can’t win with Republican votes alone, so we have to make sure that those swing voters … that the conversation is happening with them,” Milan Patterson said. “They know that giving that power to politicians is not going to serve anyone but those politicians, and they just need permission to vote against it.”

This echoes the message of the other No campaign paid for by Munger.

“If you look at all the polls from the beginning, voters don’t like rigging, period,” said Amy Thoma Tan, a spokeswoman for that campaign. “So we’re just reminding people that it’s a fake.”

California unions welcome Trump’s announcement

In contrast, their opponents on the Yes side are investing heavily in an anti-Trump message, a move Walter said is smart given that the president is the “special catalyst” helping the Yes side overcome the traditional preference of California voters to reject ballot measures.

In digital ads, the powerful California Federation of Labor reminds its 2 million members that Trump has cut federal workers’ contracts and slashed infrastructure spending, which has paid for many trade worker projects.

But in terms of phone banking operations, its president, Lorena Gonzalez, said the sweeping framing of Prop. 50 as a way to “hit back at Trump” works best to motivate voters who all “know what they’re not happy about.”

“Do we want to talk about ICE? Do we want to talk about LGBTQ (issues)? Do we want to say ‘fighting fascism?'” Gonzalez said of the discussion among labor organizers working to recruit students at UCLA.

The Service Employees International Union of California is taking an approach that includes all of the above, said Tia Orr, the union’s executive director. A digital ad urged viewers to oppose the Trump administration’s “inhumane immigration policies” by supporting Proposition 50. And a recent letter sent to SEIU’s 800,000 members in California, many of whom work in health care, reminded them that the Republican-controlled Congress approved Trump’s megabill, which would take away health insurance coverage from roughly 10 million Americans.

“I urge all registered nurses to volunteer, vote and share the message with their friends and family,” reads the letter, written in the first person and signed by Monique Hernandez, vice president of the SEIU local that represents the nurses.

In Asian American Immigrant Communities, Prop. 50 organizers highlight cuts to health care programs and how Trump’s policies are destabilizing local economies – a nod to tariffs. For Latino voters, the Yes campaign is airing ads in English and Spanish featuring New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez and Democratic Sen. Alex Padilla of California, who was forced to the floor by federal agents in Los Angeles this summer during the height of the immigration raids that rocked the city.

Latino voters ‘most undecided’

Latino voters, the largest racial group in the state and about 30% of likely voters, are a key constituency that can swing the election.

Affordability remains a top priority for Latino voters, survey by the Latino Community Foundation of 1,200 Latino registered voters in California in September shows. But they also disapproved of the president by a wide margin and felt pessimistic about their personal economic prospects in higher shares than ever before, Vice President for Policy Cristian Arana said. By a three-to-one margin, they said they felt Trump had betrayed them on immigration.

“There are a lot of people who say if you really want to talk to Latino voters, you should just talk about the economy,” said Yes on 50 consultant Juan Rodriguez. “It’s a false choice. You can’t just talk about problems at the kitchen table when your house is burning down.”

The campaign has spent more than $10 million specifically on Latino outreach, Rodriguez said, including broadcast, digital, print and radio ads in Spanish and English, as well as phone banking operations with Latino community groups.

Still, Arana called Hispanics “the most undecided voter.” Latino approval of Prop. 50 is just under 50% in the Inland Empire and Central Valley, according to the group’s survey, which has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.

Arana is most concerned that fears that immigration or other federal agents will show up at the polls could reduce voter turnout, especially since immigration crackdowns in California and elsewhere have ensnared U.S. citizens. The poll found that two-thirds of the state’s Latino voters are concerned about immigration enforcement in this election.

Democratic organizers emphasized in a recent Zoom call for volunteers that they are pushing for early voting by mail instead.

Jeremiah Kimmelman of CalMatters contributed reporting.

This article was originally published on CalMatters and is republished under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-No Derivatives license.