California at the age of 200: What will life look like in 2050?

By DJ Waldie, special for Calmatters

This comment was originally published by CalmattersS Register about their ballots.

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One hundred and seventy -five years ago, our country was a prize in an unfair war, which aimed to expand slavery beyond the plantations south to the valleys of California. Fifty years later, these valleys are dominated by corporate agriculture (wheat, cattle, cotton and oranges) and controlled politically by rail interests. Until 1950, the future of California was in the hands of real estate developers. The valleys were filled with houses, and then with all of us – believers in the Golden Dream and discouraged the Husturas. At the beginning of a new millennium in 2000, the dreamers were still arriving. Not from the “back to the east”, but from the global south and the Asian “away to the West.” The developers have still turned square miles from the agricultural land into the suburbs of Tract House. The big old -style corporations came and left. New technologies are thriving and sometimes destroyed, but overall inertia in industry, finance and labor systems, which determine California in the mid -20th century, slowed down.

What California will be in its two -year 2050 is subject to unpredictable conditions. The nation becomes unmanageable; San Andreas breaks; The land worsens in the Colorado River catchment; AI-Managed Technology Deliver the worst scenarios: social isolation, disturbed economy, accidental war.

Absent these shocks, continuously dominates the marriage of California. The demographic trends are underway after 1990 will continue. Californians will be older, With an average age of nearly 42, at the age of 38 in 2025, nearly a quarter of us will be over 65, worrying the image of the state for youth hedonism as well as in the labor market. Ethnic and political sorting will continue to send more Californians to red countries and bring immigrants – in less – to change the composition of the political and civil organizations through which power is directed. From 2050Nearly 50% of us will have Latin roots. Thehe percentage of white non-latini It will go down to 25%. This adjustment will probably bring Latin populism in California style, which violates conventional blue/red political binary files.

The 1950s California Jr., better educated, taking risks, distinguished by turning the Cold War defense costs into new industries and glossy consumer products that better determine tomorrow. When defense costs became infected in the 1990s, the university researchers and hedge fund managers drive more and faster technological achievements. The qualities that made California a unique leader in innovation are less obvious now, and global competition is firm.

Land cycles that are not in a state of livestock in the country in the mid -19th century and Screened Titanic projects in the 20th century to bring water to places With a little of your own. By 2050 we will use the water we have better Recycling of wastewaterRain water capture, limits Extraction of groundwaterand agriculture adapted to a more severe climatic regime.

But there will always be too little water in the southern half of the state. Main ecological sections – north to south, coast against an internal, moderate forest of the mountain against dry chaparale lowland – will still fragment the California landscape and determine the unique feeling of the Californians.

California lifestyles – especially the price of the dwellings – will extend the difference between households at the top and families with low and medium -sized incomes below. Without new and creative housing programs, Less than one-third of the Californians He will be able to fund a home at an average price.

The sharp differences in the quality of life between one community and another – began by predominant neighborhoods in the 1930s – will continue to continue. The conditions that predispose to some Californians to become homeless are unlikely to improve much, although there may be less faulty people who fall asleep on the streets of the city.

In the meantime outside the stateAlong with new technological billionaires and their enclaves with an unthinkable privilege.

The challenge for the Californians in 2050 will be one of the imagination: to be perceived as heirs to a compromised but still resourceful California.

The popular movements of justice and social justice ripen. Political initiatives for healthcare, education, infrastructure renovation, homelessness and accessibility of housing can follow. The dark magic of AI is a threat to medium -income and low -sales workers, but it can become a platform to deepen our understanding of the environment and improve educational results. Country with too many universal advice, commissions and special areas and Too many local authorities are jealous of their prerogatives He can learn the difficult lesson that a better future will come from regional coordination – in providing law enforcement, supervision of water management, responding to natural and human disasters and planning of economic development.

Californians must accept the weight of their history and accordingly shape their aspirations. They must imagine a different type of California, California with shared potential, acknowledging what has been lost or wasted in becoming California and understanding clearly what Californians can still achieve.

No matter how difficult it is to realize, California we deserve is possible.

This comment was adapted by an essay produced for Zócalo Public SquareS

This article was Originally Published on CalMatters and was reissued under Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Noderivatives License.