An accountant won a huge jackpot on Calcci by betting on DOGE

When Alan Cole saw Elon Musk’s fans eagerly bidding for a contract on the market for Calci’s prediction that DOGE could effectively cut federal spending within a year, he knew he had to take the bet, according to a story about Cole’s 2018 winnings. The Wall Street Journal.

If Cole, the international tax accountant, knows anything in life it’s this: Federal spending can’t be cut quickly, he told the Wall Street Journal. Even if DOGE canceled some federal contracts and laid off workers (which it did), much of the remaining liabilities and high federal debt would remain.

So, he bet his entire life’s savings – more than $342,000 – to take the counter-bet that the US federal budget would not shrink immediately. He told the Wall Street Journal that he slowly made 3% of Calci’s prediction market which grew to $12 million (making some hedging bets along the way).

When the government issued 2025 End-of-year spending report On February 20, showing increases from 2024, Cole walked away with $470,300 and a healthy profit of $128,000.