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from Dan WaltersCalMatters
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Over the past year, as the field of announced and potential gubernatorial candidates has fluctuated, those who follow California politics closely have waited for the field to stabilize and an independent poll to reveal who really has a shot at winning.
We finally have the cast of characters — nine Democrats and two Republicans — and on Wednesday we also got a poll by the California Institute for Public Policy which splits it into five whose support ranges from 10% to 14%, and six who are, at least so far, in the single digits.
The PPIC poll, however, fails to reveal clear front-runners for the two candidates who will emerge from the June primary as rivals in the November runoff, and its timing could further cloud the picture.
The PPIC began voting on Feb. 3, just five days after the last Democratic candidate, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, joined the field, so he was relegated to the bottom tier even though he is expected to become a major rivalwith generous financial support from The tech moguls of Silicon Valley. It can be assumed that Mahan had financial guarantees before entering the race.
What’s more, two of the five candidates in double digits are Republicans — former TV commentator Steve Hilton, who leads the field with 14 percent, and Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco (12 percent) — even though it’s virtually impossible for a Republican to win the governorship in a head-to-head matchup with a Democrat, given the party’s very thin voter registration.
But that has fueled concerns among some Democratic leaders that if all nine Democrats continue in the race, they could split their party’s vote so much that Hilton and Bianco could finish one-two in June, giving the state a GOP governor. It’s a long shot, but it’s at least theoretically possible.
Katie Porter, a former congresswoman who ran for the U.S. Senate in 2024 but failed to survive the first two primaries that year, is the top-ranking Democrat in the PPIC poll at 13 percent, likely reflecting the name recognition she has achieved in the Senate race.
Congressman Eric Swwell (11%) and billionaire Tom Steyer, who saturates television and the Internet with ads but garners only 10% support, round out the top five.
The final six — Mahan, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, former state inspector Betty Yee, public schools Superintendent Tony Thurmond, former Attorney General Xavier Becerra and former Rep. Ian Calderon — split 30 percent of voters in the PPIC poll. And 10% could not make a choice.
With the primary just over three months away and no clear front-runner — a highly unusual scenario given the state’s political history — the next phase will take place behind closed doors as the wealthy, unions and other interest groups who fund Democratic politicians decide who to favor.
Campaigning in California, with its many millions of voters, is a very expensive business, and all candidates except Steyer must rely on financiers to organize shadow elections in which very few financial interests will cast the votes.
It’s safe to assume that Mahan will have all the money he needs to run a credible campaign, but the other five single-digit candidates will be hard-pressed to continue their campaigns if they lose the shadow election.
Democratic leaders, worried that the two Republicans will finish one-two in the primaries, will also pressure the bottom five to drop out so the party’s voters can rally around the few at the top.
Simply put, it’s the deadline for the also-rans to either demonstrate their potential to climb the ranks, thus getting enough money to continue the campaign, or fold their tents.
This article was originally published on CalMatters and is republished under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-No Derivatives license.