Tesla’s robotaxi promises conflict with reality

In yesterday’s earnings callTesla CEO Elon Musk did his best to paint a positive image for the company’s robotaxi program. New cities are added, more miles are driven, and more people are testing unsupervised Tesla vehicles.

But Musk’s usual optimism appeared to be absent from the call, as the billionaire occasionally sought to temper expectations about the program’s future.

“We’re going as fast as humanly possible in scaling up Robotaxi, while trying to make sure we never hurt anyone, and ideally don’t run over a pet,” Musk said.

Musk’s insistence that Tesla’s robotaxi service is growing contradicts the reality of the situation: Mileage is basically constantThe number of vehicles appears to be shrinking, and despite claims by Tesla’s executive team that there have been no notable accidents, the safety of the company’s technology appears to be an open question.

Tesla has done its best to frame the situation as moving in the right direction. Ashok Elswami, head of the company’s artificial intelligence department, said that Tesla’s unsupervised robotaxis have traveled 380,000 miles across six cities in two different states. According to Musk, this was increasing at a rate of 10 percent per week in terms of miles driven.

Elluswamy could only attack Tesla’s competitors that use lidar sensors, as opposed to Tesla’s camera-only approach. “Historically, so-called experts have always claimed that you need sensors, radars, high-resolution maps, and the entire kitchen sink to drive safely,” he said. “Here we show that’s not true. You can have safe, comfortable and affordable autonomy using just cameras. This record should serve as a great validation of Tesla’s entire AI approach.”

But even the numbers reported by Tesla seem to betray this message. Waymo, which uses lidar and radar as redundant sensors in addition to cameras, typically drives about four million miles per week. Tesla’s total mileage, a year into its robotaxi program, is less than 10% of that number. This reality is beginning to spook investors, with James Picariello, senior equity research analyst at BNP Paribas, calling it a “worrying decline” in a research note to clients.

Tesla uses a mix of unattended and attended vehicles as part of its fleet, but that ratio appears to be in flux. according to Crowdsourcing Robotaxi TrackerThe company currently has only 16 unattended vehicles in Austin, four in Dallas, and one in Houston. During the earnings call, Elluswamy was asked what was keeping Tesla from flooding the area in Austin, where it first launched a robotaxi a year ago, instead of dropping a small number of vehicles in new cities.

“The reason we are expanding across different cities, rather than just doubling down on one city, is because we want to make sure that our range is very general,” Eleswamy said. “It’s a general idea. We just want to, you know, prove to ourselves and others that it works across a lot of different cities without putting a lot of effort into each city.”

Another limiting factor is state regulations. New Jersey is Consider a bill This would essentially ban taxis without multiple sensors, such as radar and lidar. Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco pointed this out during the call, noting that “there appears to be some evolving regulations at the state level, perhaps related to sensor requirements.” This was admitted by Tesla’s Vice President of Vehicle Engineering, Lars Murphy, saying: “Obviously, things in New Jersey, you know, are a little frustrating.”

A more restrictive regulatory environment could limit the total addressable market for Tesla’s robotic vehicle, which would conflict with the company’s message of a more universal service that can drive anywhere, under any conditions.

Safety is another hurdle. Musk’s comment about wanting to avoid running over anyone’s pet appeared to be a subtle criticism of Waymo, which has struck and killed a number of animals over the past several years. But Tesla’s safety record is a mixed bag. We don’t have much knowledge about Tesla’s robotaxi accidents because the company tends to redact a lot of important details.

According to the Robotaxi Tracker website, the company’s fleet was involved in about 18 accidents, 56 percent of which were due to the error of another driver. Tesla’s full self-driving is under investigation by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, with a possible recall in the future. Tesla’s robotaxis are currently running FSD version 15, compared to version 14.3.6 on its customers’ cars.

Tesla is asking investors, backers and customers to look beyond these shortcomings as it continues to spread the message that its robotaxi program is growing. But the company continues to face a reality that contradicts that message.