Campaign cash keeps California Republicans competitive

from Maya S. MillerCalMatters

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It’s a tough year to be a Republican running for Congress, especially in California, where voters have lit up new maps designed to unseat five GOP incumbents in favor of Democrats.

Three were doomed after being drawn in solidly Democratic districts. But there is one bright spot for Republicans: campaign cash.

In the state’s two remaining competitive districts, seats that Democrats rigged in their favor and now see as must-haves to flip the House, bruising and costly primary battles have put Democratic candidates at a financial disadvantage as campaigns prepare for the sprint to Election Day.

In the Central Valley, Republican David Valadao has a casket of more than $3.3 million in cash, according to the latest federal report filed on Wednesday. His Democratic opponent, progressive professor and school board trustee Randy Villegas, there is only a fraction of it — about $571,000 in cash on hand.

Unlike Valadao, Villegas had to win an intra-party battle against a deputy Jasmeet Bainon institution supported candidate and heavy favorite. His campaign spent more than $1.45 million in the two months leading up to the June 2 primary. Valadao’s team spent less than $280,000 during the same period.

Further south in the 48th District, Republican San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond has more than $1.2 million in cash, federal documents show. His Democratic opponent, San Diego City Councilwoman Marnie Von Wilpert, is further back with $825,000 after beating fellow Democrat Amar Campa-Najjar in the primary.

And in the suburbs of Sacramento, 2.1 million dollars in Republican-turned-independent Kevin Kiley’s account cuts $359,000 that Democratic Sen. Richard Pan is available.

Increasing this GOP financial advantage is a US Supreme Court decision last month, which lifted decades-old limits on how much political parties could spend in direct coordination with the candidates they support.

Under federal law, distributors must offer applicants the lowest available rate. But political committees, such as parties or super PACs, had to pay much more for the same ad time. That mostly benefits Democrats, whose candidates tend to be stronger fundraisers thanks to vast networks of small-dollar donors.

The new ruling essentially gives political parties access to that lower percentage of TV ads as well — and the Republican National Committee is flush with cash this year.

At the end of May, it had more than $125 million, according to the most recent federal filingcompared to the Democratic National Committee which records show has more than $3 million in debt. Likewise, the House GOP’s campaign arm, the National Republican Congressional Committee, has more than $81 million at his disposalmore than twice as much as him Democratic counterpart.

Although saddled with an unpopular president and an unpopular war that has raised the cost of living, Republicans are optimistic that the court’s decision will help enough of their candidates in swing districts to maintain the party’s control of Congress.

“This is another arrow in the Republican quiver heading into November,” RNC spokesman Nick Poche said in an emailed statement.

The decision will force a campaign selection

Democrats aren’t sounding the alarm yet.

“I don’t see it as the biggest unlock,” Paul Mitchell, Democratic vice president of a California political data firm and redistricting expert, said of the Supreme Court decision. “That money would find its way to the right candidates that Republicans wanted to spend money on.”

Mitchell said the ruling will force Democrats to evaluate which money is best spent by which parts of the campaign — the candidate, the parties, super PACs or other outside groups. For example, instead of the candidate booking TV ads, the party can focus on buying ads and the candidate can work on building a strong team of volunteers on the ground.

Democratic candidates in swing congressional districts still had a significant fundraising lead in the final quarter before the June primary.

In the 22nd District, Villegas trailed Republican incumbent Valadao by nearly 2 to 1 in the latest filing period, which ended June 30, according to campaign reports filed Wednesday. In the 48th District, von Wilpert outspent Desmond by more than 3 to 1, earning $871,000 compared to his estimated $272,000.

It remains unclear, however, whether the GOP national committees will choose to spend their windfall in California. While national Republican committees could theoretically stretch their dollars by spending more in districts across the country, they may not choose to prioritize California with its more expensive media markets. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report classifies just 18 of the 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives as “up for grabs.” Another 10 races lean toward a Democratic victory, while nine lean toward Republicans.

“They want to play where they can win seats,” said Rob Stutzman, a longtime consultant to California Republicans. “Money doesn’t solve everything, and it’s on the defensive in a lot of places.”

This article was originally published on CalMatters and is republished under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-No Derivatives license.