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The heat will be intense It is one of the biggest challenges that players and fans face during… 2026 FIFA World Cup. According to an analysis by World Weather Attribution (WWA), about 25 percent of the tournament’s 104 matches could be played at temperatures exceeding recommended thermal safety limits. The study indicates that the probability of encountering these conditions is almost double what was recorded in the 1994 championship, which was held in the United States.
The forecasts are developed using a statistical model designed to calculate the probability of each match being played in extremely hot conditions. To assess the risk of physiological heat stress in host locations, scientists used the wetland global temperature, known as WBGT. This index provides a more accurate measurement of the thermal sensation felt by the human body, because it includes not only the ambient temperature, but variables such as humidity, solar radiation, and wind speed as well.
The analysis individually examined all cities in the United States, Mexico and Canada that will host the 2026 World Cup matches. To do this, it took into account specific local factors, including altitude, ambient humidity, regional climate and the urban characteristics of each place.
The researchers analyzed historical WBGT daily records for the period between June 11 and July 19, the scheduled dates of the tournament. They then compared these values with the safety limits set by the International Federation of Football Players.
The organization has set a WBGT of 26 °C (78.8 °F) as the minimum above which additional hydration and cooling measures must be implemented to protect players. A temperature of 28 degrees Celsius (82.4 degrees Fahrenheit) is considered high risk, the maximum at which the organization has recommended delaying or even suspending matches to avoid potential health risks.
Based on these criteria, the study concluded that one in four matches could be played under a first-risk scenario, while at least five matches would be played in conditions equal to or greater than 82°F on the WBGT index.
the a report He warns that Miami, Kansas City, Philadelphia, Dallas and Houston represent a particularly worrisome scenario. The results indicate that these cities only have a one-year return period for events reaching 82.4°F WBGT. In other words, there is a high probability that these extreme conditions will be repeated almost every year during the World Cup dates.
The same frequency trend for the WBGT threshold of 78.8°F was also observed in the US cities of Atlanta, Boston and New York, as well as in the Mexican city of Monterrey.
The study confirms that the increase in these risks is closely linked to the increase in global warming recorded in recent decades. In the case of matches played at 82.4 degrees Fahrenheit, the probability of that occurring has at least doubled since 1994 in cities such as Los Angeles, Seattle, San Francisco, Monterey, Toronto and Vancouver, all of which are hosting matches this World Cup.
Rubén del Campo, spokesman for the Spanish government meteorological agency, explained to SMC Spain that since 1994, the average global temperature has risen by between 0.5 and 0.7 degrees Celsius. “This number may not seem very high, but it represents almost half of the temperature rise observed in the last century and a half,” del Campo told SMC Spain. “Moreover, since the mid-1990s, when the previous World Cup was held in the United States, the effects of climate change have intensified throughout the planet, especially heat waves.”
The 2026 World Cup will be held in stifling heat
The WWA report joins other recent research warning of extreme weather conditions expected during the World Cup. At the end of 2024, a study published Scientific Reports warns that 10 of the 16 host stadiums pose a “very high” risk of extreme heat, and that two of them could particularly impact players and attendees.
According to this research, the stadiums most at risk of generating extreme heat stress are Arlington and Houston, both in Texas, as well as BBVA Stadium in Monterey.
