California’s population is stagnant. How will he react?

from Dan WaltersCalMatters

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California’s population exploded during and immediately after World War II, from 6.9 million in 1940 to 19.9 million in 1970, thanks to waves of migrants from other states attracted by California’s growing economy and the famous postwar baby boom.

California accommodated its 13 million new residents by expanding its public infrastructure of schools, colleges, highways, parks, and water systems, and by welcoming massive private investment in new housing, new shopping complexes, new factories, and new office buildings.

Population growth slowed in the 1970s after the baby boom and as an economic evolution, from manufacturing to technology and services, changed the labor market. The leading politician of the decade, Gov. Jerry Brown, declared that California had entered an “era of constraints” and no major infrastructure expansion was needed.

However, the 1980s saw another population surge, driven by immigration from other countries and a new baby boom. California’s population jumped by 6 million — 5 million of them babies — during the decade, a more than 25 percent increase.

The increase was so large compared to the nation as a whole that California gained seven new seats in Congress since the 1990 census.

In contrast to California’s expansive response to postwar population growth, the boom of the 1980s provoked an adverse response in the 1990s, including new laws aimed at denial of public services to undocumented immigrants and a power struggle in the Sierra Club on the impact of immigration on the environment.

Meanwhile, population growth slowed again and virtually stopped during that decade as immigration and birth rates declined and significant numbers left California, thanks in large part to the state’s extremely high cost of living.

A recent study by researchers Hans Johnson, Julien Lafortune and Eric McGee at the Public Policy Institute of California found that the total fertility rate fell from 2.21 children per woman in 2007 to 1.48 in 2023, well below what demographers call “the 2.1 replacement level needed to prevent population decline.”

The state lost a congressional seat after the 2020 census and is likely to lose a few more after the 2030 census. However, the impact of California’s population plateau extends far beyond politics.

“A smaller population can offer benefits; it reduces the pressure on housing and infrastructure needs,” the researchers wrote, “relieving congestion and reducing the need for expansive public works projects.” They also pointed to potential environmental improvements and increases in per-pupil education costs as enrollment declines.

“At the same time,” they added, “fewer births — and a smaller population — could present challenges: They could accelerate K-12 enrollment declines and strain the state’s economic and safety systems as fewer workers support a larger share of older Californians. Labor shortages could also hamper California’s economic development.”

These are all valid points, and many more potential impacts could be mentioned. But the main question is whether political policies will reflect the new demographic reality.

The post-World War II population explosion manifested itself in a bipartisan effort to do what was necessary to make the transition relatively painless. Since then, we have not seen such political accommodation to changing demographic trends.

Meanwhile, the state’s population is twice what it was in 1970, and we’re still dependent on what politicians did in the postwar era — things like the State Water Plan and our extensive highway network.

Population stagnation reduces the pressure for new infrastructure, but we still need to maintain what we have and expand it to meet current needs. However, the water projects have stalled and we are no longer building new highways.

Jerry Brown, who heralded the “era of restriction” in the 1970s, returned to the governor’s office in 2011 and declared, “I want to end the bullshit.”

There is still much to be done.

This article was originally published on CalMatters and is republished under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-No Derivatives license.