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As the world He held his breath on Tuesday night, news A Ceasefire and possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz It brought a collective sigh of relief. But with shipments in the strait halted for more than a month, the global shipping disruption will not be resolved immediately.
“Traffic through Hormuz decreased by about 95% (during this conflict). As a result, prices rose, not only for crude oil, but also for refined products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoil,” says Carsten Ladecker, CEO of Glander International Bunkering, which specializes in supplying fuels and lubricants to the global shipping industry.
The impact varied between regions. The countries that rely heavily on energy in the Middle East – especially in Asia – were the most affected. India imports about 55 percent of its energy imports from the region, China about 50 percent, Japan 93 percent, South Korea 67 percent, and Singapore 70 percent, according to Adhikar.
While the ceasefire indicates the possibility of reopening the crossing, basic details remain unclear. “Even with a ceasefire, reopening will not be immediate,” says Ladikiar. “There is a backlog, as ships wait to leave, and there will likely be a controlled process to determine who goes out first. Iran appears to still be managing that.”
Energy markets reacted quickly. Brent crude It’s down to about $94 From $110 earlier in the week — down about 15 percent.
“Refined products like diesel and jet fuel have fallen further, because markets are looking to the future, they are taking into account expectations,” says Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, senior analyst and head of research at the global risk management firm. “But we are still well above pre-war levels, which were $60 to $70.”
System under accumulation
There are still about 1,000 ships in the Gulf, including hundreds of tankers, waiting to pass.
As of this writing, more than 800 cargo ships and tankers It is stuck inside the Persian Gulf, with more than 1,000 additional ships waiting on either side of the Strait of Hormuz.
Under normal circumstances, approx 150 ships pass through it Strait daily. Experts say clearing the backlog will take time, as the ships must be sequenced, fueled and repositioned.
“This is a logistical nightmare,” says Lohmann Rasmussen. “We don’t yet know what the current capacity is, especially from a security perspective.” “It’s something that can’t be solved overnight. There are logistical issues, security issues, and even communications challenges.”
Although the market has already experienced a correction, this does not mean that prices at pumping stations or in warehouses fall immediately.