Trump endorses Hilton, helps California Democrats in gubernatorial race

from Dan WaltersCalMatters

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For weeks, California Democratic leaders have worried aloud that so many Democrats will run for governor that two Republicans could finish first and second in the state’s June 2 primary, guaranteeing a GOP governor in November.

Late Sunday, Democrats’ concerns received some relief from an unexpected source — President Donald Trump.

Trump backed Republican Steve Hilton, a former TV commentator, against Chad Bianco, the Riverside County sheriff, reducing the likelihood of a 1-2 GOP tie-up that would be the only way a Republican governor could be elected in deep blue California.

“I have known and respected Steve Hilton, who is running for governor of California, for many years,” Trump said in posting on his Truth Social. “He’s a really good guy, a guy who watched this once great country go to hell. Gavin Newscome and the Democrats have done an absolutely terrible job. People are fleeing, crime is up, and taxes are the highest of any country in the country, maybe the world. Steve can turn it around before it’s too late, and as president, I’m going to help him do it!”

Hilton, of course, was pleased, reciting his own litany of woes for California in a statement and concluding, “I’m grateful for the president’s support. Together, we can turn things around and make California truly golden again.”

It’s the latest chapter in what is already the strangest gubernatorial campaign in recent history. Who would have thought that Donald Trump would, perhaps unwittingly, help Democrats avoid the embarrassment of allowing a Republican to win the governorship?

A recent Democratic poll found Hilton and Bianco almost equalizedwith mid-teens percentage voter support, while the eight serious Democratic candidates were no higher than 10% each. Given the size of the field — there will be 61 names on the primary ballot — it was possible, though still improbable, that the two GOP candidates could each garner about 20 percent of the June 2 vote to advance to November under California’s top-two primary system.

Trump’s intervention makes that scenario less likely because it would tend to consolidate Republican voters behind Hilton. But while he could help Hilton finish in first or second place, without Bianco he would be a near-certain loser in November from every Democrat on the ballot.

Trump may also have eased the pressure on Democrats to secretly help one of the Republicans jump ahead so as to avoid a 1-2 GOP result. This strategy was used by Democrat Adam Schiff in the US Senate race two years ago, indirectly helping Republican Steve Garvey finish second in the primary, thus avoiding a general election matchup with Democrat Katie Porter.

“Steve Hilton’s endorsement of Trump likely frees up tens of millions of dollars for Democratic groups that would otherwise have to spend heavily to field one of the two leading GOP gubernatorial candidates to avoid a Democratic lockout,” Rob Piers of the California Target Book, published on X.

All this maneuvering doesn’t completely close the door on a 1-2 GOP result in June, however. There are no certainties in a campaign as strange as this one. What’s more, to take full advantage of Trump’s gift, Democrats must also decide which of their candidates will carry the party’s banner to victory in November.

Currently, former Congresswoman Katie Porter, who is running for governor after losing her 2024 Senate race, appears to be tied with billionaire Tom Steyer and Congressman Eric Swalwell at the top of eight serious Democratic candidates.

However, the clock is ticking. Mail-in voting starts in about four weeks, and unless someone makes a breakthrough soon, it’s still possible for Republicans to finish 1-2, regardless of Trump’s tactically stupid intervention.

This article was originally published on CalMatters and is republished under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-No Derivatives license.