Democratic anger in California threatens these policy reforms

from Dan WaltersCalMatters

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The upheaval in the California Democratic Party over this year’s gubernatorial election and the fallout from the party’s bare-bones congressional seat grab could have long-term consequences, undoing two important political reforms — the first-two primary system and independent commission redistricting.

The upheaval comes because there are nine Democratic candidates for governor, making it possible for two Republicans to finish one or two in the June 2 primary, leading to a GOP gubernatorial election in November.

A a recent survey of voters by the Public Policy Institute of California found that Republicans Steve Hilton (14%) and Chad Bianco (12%) were 1st and 3rd in support, with Katie Porter (13%) the leading Democrat, followed by Eric Swalwell (11%) and Tom Steyer (10%). The remaining six Democrats are at 5% or less.

Filing for the primary ballot ends this week, and Rusty Hicks, the chairman of the Democratic Party, is publicly asking lower-level Democrats to drop out and thereby reduce the chances of a 1-2 GOP finish.

this week in a public letterHicks said a 1-2 GOP primary may be implausible, but “it’s not impossible, and I know that collectively we are committed to taking the necessary steps to avoid that possibility.”

So far, none of the last six have voluntarily given up. The anger is likely to fuel efforts to abolish the top-two system and return to closed party primaries, thereby eliminating any possibility of a future Republican backdoor victory.

Neither side liked the top two system when it was that way proposed during the 2009 state budget impasse. Republican Sen. Abel Maldonado, backed by then-Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger said he would vote for the budget only if Democrats put the top-two system on the ballot, arguing it would reduce polarization.

The Democrats backed down and Proposition 14creating the system, was approved by voters in 2010. Given their distaste for the first-two system in the first place and what has happened this year, it is very likely that Democratic leaders will seek to eliminate it.

Leaders of both parties also didn’t like it when Charles Munger Jr., a wealthy Stanford University scholar, proposed that the state shift the redrawing of legislative and congressional districts from the Legislature to an independent commission. Munger, backed by Schwarzenegger, argued that this would put an end to self-serving gerrymanders.

A measure funded by Munger in 2008. Proposition 11created the commission for legislative districts, and in 2010 Proposition 20 expanded the commission to congressional districts. The commission produced new maps after the 2010 and 2020 censuses.

Last year, however, to counter Texas’ efforts to shift five congressional seats from Democrats to Republicans, Gov. Gavin Newsom proposed and voters passed Proposition 50. He rigged California’s 52 congressional districts to win at least five Democratic seats this year.

Newsom said the gerrymander is needed to blunt President Donald Trump’s efforts to skew the 2026 congressional elections. Newsom has promised that the redistricting would last only three election cycles and the committee system would return after the 2030 census.

But will it?

Let’s say the gerrymander gives Democrats five more seats in California, creating a 48-4 party split. It’s California doomed to lose at last four and perhaps five seats total after the 2030 census, due to population stagnation. Nationally, blue states like California and New York will lose seats in Congress to faster-growing red states like Florida and Texas.

Reinstating the commission system could trim the Democratic ranks by up to 10 seats as the state’s more conservative interior counties outpace the liberal coastal region in population growth.

For all these reasons, California’s Democratic leaders will be under enormous pressure from the national party — and Democrats who won seats in 2026 — to minimize losses. They can only do this by eliminating the commission and returning redistricting power to the Democrat-controlled legislature.

This article was originally published on CalMatters and is republished under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-No Derivatives license.