A political ally is testing Los Angeles’ loyalty to Mayor Karen Bass

from Jim NewtonCalMatters

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The Los Angeles mayoral race is underway, and it’s shaping up along lines few expect, presenting City Councilwoman Nithya Raman as a real threat — if still an outsider — to Mayor Karen Bass.

And the contest will not only elect a mayor; it will also illuminate what a democratic city Los Angeles is.

To understand the significance of this election, it’s important to first debunk a few misconceptions: This election is not a microcosm of the California gubernatorial race, in which big names like former Vice President Kamala Harris and Sen. Alex Padilla took a pass and leave a middle ground to fight him.

In Los Angeles, the idea that big names missed the race started out of a misunderstanding of the city.

Many commentators, starting with the not-so-astute Bill Maher, imagined that Bass was vulnerable to a challenge from her right, specifically from the man she beat last time, developer Rick Caruso. These experts then I figured Bass was in the clear after Caruso passed.

In fact, Caruso was never a credible threat to Bass. Caruso spent $100 million of his own money four years ago for the privilege of losing to Bass by 10 percentage points. His status as a former Republican who switched to Democrat at the last minute made his mayoral bid a prospect at the time. And private polls in this race show the city still doesn’t have much to gain from him.

He toyed with the run until the end, but his decision to pass it just means there will be more money around this time next year.

Likewise, former Los Angeles Schools Superintendent Austin Beutner wanted to fill the narrow alley for rich, white boys in Los Angeles racing. Beutner is a true Democrat whose politics are closer to those of the city, but he faced a significant challenge in convincing voters that he would be to the left of Bass on housing issues — tough optics for a businessman whose political career has been more of a hobby than a commitment. He cut short his campaign following the death of his 22-year-old daughter.

The publicity given to these two non-candidates reinforced the myth about Bass that her rough performance in the early days of the Palisades fire had exposed her to a challenge from a more conservative opponent who could rally the forces of public order and safety to oust a flailing liberal Democrat.

This myth had undertones of race and paternalism—that Los Angeles was broken and needed a white man to come fix it—and reflected an expert’s perspective rather than a genuine analysis of the electorate. In the myth, Bass skates free when Caruso and Beutner finally pass, thus giving her an open field for a second term.

Most of it is wrong.

In fact, Bass’s open flank was on the left, because as hard as it is for those outside Los Angeles to understand, Karen Bass—a liberal black woman who cut her political teeth responding to police brutality and the ravages of Los Angeles by crack cocaine—is the most conservative mayor this city is likely to see in some time.

Which leads to the real mayoral race, the real test of Bass’s leadership. With just hours left before the filing deadline, Councilman Raman threw his hat into the mayoral circle.

Raman is definitely not Rick Caruso, which is what makes her worth watching.

Her challenge to Mayor Bass is to the mayor’s left, not his right. Raman is an ally and admirer of Bass, not a staunch critic. She was certainly never a Republican. And most importantly, she’s a real contender for the job, not a rich guy looking to burn his ego with an expensive runner-up run.

Raman’s decision to enter the race surprised many observers, myself included. I decided that Raman would not run against an office holder that she supported and was supported by him.

In addition, there has been talk in recent months that the Democratic Socialists, who have a growing influence in local politics, will stick with Bass this time and then find their own candidate to run in four years, when Bass is ousted.

Who is Raman?

Instead, Raman took a close look at Bass’ numbers and decided to strike. That irked some of her colleagues on the left, many of whom had already pledged to Bass and committed to the four-year schedule.

She told me last week that it was not the result of an acrimonious break between her and Bass, for whom Raman said she had “tremendous respect.” It was, she said, “more of a slow simmer than an overnight change of heart.”

Raman is smart, well-spoken, ideologically committed and armed with degrees from MIT and Harvard. She has already won two City Council elections, unseating an incumbent and defending her seat, albeit with significant help from her then-ally, Mayor Bass.

And Raman has a complete and ideologically indicative list of positions and accomplishments.

She helped create the city’s estate tax, which imposes a special levy on real estate sales valued at more than $5 million. She advocates for a humane response to homelessness, both praising the city’s successes in recent years and lamenting what she sees as lack of urgency around the problem.

And she has been a constant critic of LAPD spending. Just last month she voted against a motion by the mayor to hire more officers to offset LAPD attrition; at the time, Raman argued that the city needed to “free the money from the police.”

Her challenge today is twofold: to reach voters with her message and to test the electorate itself.

The former is made more difficult by the improvised feel of this effort. A successful mayoral campaign is usually a years-long endeavor that begins with gentle overtures and eventually grows into voting, fundraising, events, rallies and advertising.

Raman is trying to compress all of this into a quick plan until June, when he hopes to keep Bass under 50%. This is facilitated by the large field, about 40 candidates in total.

If Bass gets more than 50% in the June election, often incorrectly called a primary, she wins. But if Raman can keep Bass under 50% and finish second, it would give her a chance to face the mayor one-on-one in a runoff in November.

This is the logistics side. Philosophically speaking, at its core, Raman’s campaign examines the city’s political identity, asking whether it is a liberal, democratic bastion or something to the left of that, the vanguard of a new democratic socialism.

“This is a progressive city,” Raman said last week, adding that Los Angeles is the city that wants to see homelessness responded “with compassion and care, not policing.”

Are Democratic voters in Los Angeles like those in New York?

All of this comes against the recent story of Zokhran Mamdani’s victory in the New York mayoral race, raising the obvious question of whether Los Angeles is ready to elect its own democratic socialist. In a way, the answer to that is yes: the Los Angeles electorate is, at least liberal like New Yorkprobably more.

But elections are not won by ideological affinity. They are earned by defeating opponents. In New York, Mamdani defeated Andrew Cuomo, who carried a powerful family name but had done his best to tarnish it. In Los Angeles, even voters who disapprove of Karen

Bass’ job as mayor like her. Hell, even Raman likes her.

Can Raman catch fire the way Mamdani did? yes She has much of his dignity, credentials, appeal and glamour. And she has a receptive electorate.

But Mamdani’s victory was remarkable precisely because it was so unusual. Raman’s challenge is greater, she starts later and faces a more talented, respected and formidable opponent. This will be a test for the city of Los Angeles.

This article was originally published on CalMatters and is republished under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-No Derivatives license.