How Newsom’s presidential ambitions are shaping his latest budget

from Dan WaltersCalMatters

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like Gavin Newsom moves ever closer to announcing his presidential bid, everything he does in his final year as governor is rightly viewed through that political lens.

Newsom knows that being cast as a left-wing culture warrior from deep blue California — a factor in sinking Kamala Harris’ bid for the White House — is potentially fatal.

in this way Newsom’s final state budget takes on new political significance and makes the always difficult process of weighing competing interests within the state even more complex than usual.

We saw this syndrome affect Jerry Brown, the last governor of California who harbored serious presidential ambitions. In 1978, he opposed it Proposition 13the iconic tax-cut ballot measure, but since its passage has supported both a major state tax cut and a spending cap ballot measure to accommodate the tax-cut movement.

Brown then tried to push the anti-tax-and-spend movement into the White House two years later, but failed miserably.

Back to Newsom.

His initial budget proposalreleased last week, basically adopts the current spending plan, with a few tweaks that continue its ideological drift to the right. Hoping to create a balanced budget, at least on paper, Newsom is cutting spending on social welfare and health services and college scholarships.

Those steps themselves have drawn criticism from many advocacy groups, but opposition has also been fueled by his apparent reluctance to fill gaps caused by President Donald Trump’s cuts to federal support.

The reaction of leftists was well summed up in a critique by Chris Hoehnexecutive director of the California Budget and Policy Center, a group of organizations that lobby for public services, especially those for the poor.

“California’s state budget is a reflection of our shared values ​​and our responsibility to care for one another,” Hoehne said in a statement. “Unfortunately, the governor’s 2026-27 spending plan balances the budget by avoiding the harsh reality of the Republican megabill, HR 1and maintains state cuts to vital public benefits, such as Medi-Cal, enacted as part of the current year’s budget.

“Governor Newsom’s unwillingness to offer meaningful revenue solutions to help blunt the harm from federal cuts undermines his position to oppose the Trump administration.

Some budget critics want new taxes to cover state deficits and offset federal cuts. To fill those gaps, any new fees would need to generate about $30 billion a year.

“That means standing up to corporations and billionaires, raising revenue instead of cutting budgets, and building a stronger California every step of the way,” the Legislative Progressive Caucus said in response to Newsom’s budget proposal.

Both of Newsom’s predecessors, Brown and Arnold Schwarzenegger, supported new taxes to cover multibillion-dollar deficits. However, Newsom has repeatedly rejected any large tax increases to close deficits.

Unions and other left-leaning groups are sponsoring two potential tax-raising ballot measures. One would continue and expand the temporary tax hike for high-income Californians that Brown sponsored after returning to the governor’s office in 2011. another proposal would impose a 5% wealth tax on state billionaires.

Newsom has promised that when he revisits the budget in May, just weeks before it is to be passed, he will both balance it for the next fiscal year and attack the huge deficits that will remain after his governorship ends. The chances of this happening without any new taxes are, to put it mildly, almost nil.

If Newsom continues to cut spending on services for the poor and oppose new taxesits lame-duck status could cause unusual opposition in the Legislature. Likewise, his presidential hopefuls may face opposition from progressive groups in both California and key states for the 2028 campaign.

As governor and likely presidential candidate, Newsom is caught in a political trap of his own making.

This article was originally published on CalMatters and is republished under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-No Derivatives license.