Opinion | Los Angeles Mayor Bass is vulnerable but will be hard to unseat

from Jim NewtonCalMatters

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Investment banker and former school principal Austin Beutner’s announcement that he will challenge Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass for re-election raises several questions about the state of politics in America’s second largest city.

Among them: Is Bass vulnerable to a respectable opponent? If so, what kind of challenger might give her the most trouble? And how, if at all, does the long shadow of President Donald Trump affect the parameters of this race?

Let’s look at them in order:

Yes, Bass is vulnerable. Public and private polls determine her approval rating somewhere in the low 40s, against an approval rating in the high 40s — meaning she’s about 10 points underwater, a danger zone for an incumbent.

The good news for her is that her disapproval hasn’t exceeded 50% in any poll, so she hasn’t alienated a majority of voters.

It’s also worth noting that her position comes at a time when many political figures are not valued.

In California, Governor Gavin Newsom usually exceeds 50% since ramping up his attacks on Trump. The president, for a starting point, is deeply unpopular, with disapprovals outweigh approvals at 18 percent — shocking even for a leader who generally receives low ratings from Americans.

Bass’ numbers are nowhere near alarming enough to count her out, but they invite contenders. For months, it has been mostly speculation centered around businessman Rick Carusowhich Bass defeated in 2022. If Caruso enters, it would set up a rematch of a race in which he spent more than $100 million of his own money only to lose to Bass by 10 points.

The private study showed that Caruso potentially started a little better this time, but not by much. Many voters don’t like that he’s a developer or that he registered as a Democrat just in time to run in 2022.

Even Caruso’s attempts to challenge Bass on her response to the January wildfires were complicated by his record during that devastating event. Caruso’s private fire crews protected his Palisades mall allowing the structures around them to burn — not a great look for a future mayor for all Angelenos.

Beutner’s main contribution to the campaign so far may be pushing Caruso. It’s hard to imagine there being room for two rich white guys in the Los Angeles election. In fact, there is reason to wonder if there is even a place for one. And with Sen. Alex Padilla’s announcement last week that will not run for governorCaruso may have a better start in this race.

As the campaign progresses, a look at the issues and personalities will help voters make up their minds in this race, but for now the issues are more structural than personal.

Which brings us to this: What challenger might pose the biggest threat to Bass?

People outside Los Angeles no doubt imagine that a liberal black mayor would only be vulnerable to a conservative, someone who could hold the center while she received support from the left.

Those people would be wrong.

Los Angeles is among the most liberal cities in America. If anything, Bass may be more conservative than the city’s political center. That being said, there is talk of possible Liberal challengers against her. The popularity of Democratic Socialists in several Soviet districts and the recent victory of New York Mayor-elect Zokhran Mamdani are reminders that the left has solid and growing power in America’s urban centers.

For his part, Beutner resists attempts to categorize his candidacy as fitting one stripe or another. In an interview last week, he stressed that he was seeking the office in response to what he felt was widespread disenchantment with Bass’ leadership.

He is pushing for a full commitment to building more housing, an issue that could put him to the left of Bass. To housing liberals, he offers a building boom and, hopefully, a burst of supply that could drive down rents.

But he also talks about improving public safety, security and cleanliness, issues that could appeal to more conservative voters.

That will take some work, but Beutner, a former Los Angeles public schools superintendent, shouldn’t be taken lightly. (Disclosure: I worked as an editorial page editor at the LA Times when Beutner was its publisher in 2014-15.)

A recent private survey found that only 23% of those interviewed had an impression of Beutner. Spurred by his description as a “Democrat who gets things done” and given a few other tidbits from his resume, they zeroed in on him, suggesting a possible campaign. However, they did so when they received a positive description of him and his achievements. That’s a favor the Bass campaign won’t do him.

Which brings us to the final question: How has this campaign been affected by Trump?

The mayoral race will appear on the ballot next June, and if no candidate gets a majority in that round, a runoff will be in November. That puts him in contention with midterm congressional elections — hotly contested races sure to put Trump at the center of the conversation.

It also probably helps Bass because Trump has made it clear he has no respect for the mayor. And the Los Angeles electorate has made it just as clear that it has no use for it.

Since ICE began conducting its theatrical and forceful raids in Los Angeles last summer, Bass has risen to defy the president, challenging him in court and in public appearances.

For his part, Trump did called Los Angeles a “pile of garbage” and despises Bass as “not very competent.” And Stephen Miller, Trump’s architect of the ICE raids, did accused Bass of lining up with the “illegal alien invasion” in California.

In normal times, a mayor might suffer such devastating criticism from Washington. But as much as Trump is nationalizing this campaign, he’s helping Bass; he doesn’t hurt her.

The recent vote on Proposition 50 — which authorized redistricting of California’s congressional seats to counter Texas’ efforts to help Trump in the midterms — shows more than 64 percent of Californians support it.

That’s a big number. But in Los Angeles the yes vote was 74%, a stunning majority and totally dedicated to thwarting Trump. As these numbers prove, voters here hate Trump. He has a way of crowding out other conversations.

If Los Angeles sees Bass as a bulwark against the president, it could be difficult for Beutner or any other candidate to find traction — especially if they appear on the same ballot that voters will use to register their displeasure with a president they loathe.

This article was originally published on CalMatters and is republished under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-No Derivatives license.