Bird flu causes prices to rise in Türkiye ahead of Thanksgiving. Here’s how expensive they can get

for you Turkey Thanksgiving dinner The price will be much higher this year, as a worsening bird flu epidemic threatens turkey flocks and their supplies in the United States.

CNET received data from the industry watchdog Farm forward This reveals the scale of the crisis. Nearly 3 million turkeys have died from highly pathogenic avian influenza, or HPAI, so far this year. That’s already more than double the total bird flu deaths in 2024 (1.25 million), but still far short of the furious 2022 pandemic that killed more than 9 million people.

According to government data, this loss — which represents about 1.45% of the total U.S. turkey flock — has sent wholesale turkey prices up more than 26% from last year. Other forecasts, including those of Burnett Nelson, an economist at the American Farm Bureau Federation who spoke to… New York TimesTurkey prices jumped nearly 40%.

As reported Axiosthe US turkey flock is at its lowest level in 40 years. According to the USDA, production is expected to be just 4.8 billion pounds, down 5% from 2024.

Accelerating outbreak

The spread of HPAI has accelerated dramatically in recent months, ahead of the critical holiday season:

• There were 110 individual outbreaks on commercial turkey farms in 2025.
• The outbreak is growing: 34 commercial flocks of turkeys have been affected since August 2025, with 21 flocks infected in September alone and 15 flocks already affected in October.
• Minnesota leads the nation in losses, with 962,300 turkeys culled.
• Ohio had the largest number of outbreaks, with 41 individual farms affected (resulting in the deaths of 511,400 turkeys).

Federal policy under the microscope

While the immediate crisis impacts consumers’ wallets, Farm Forward argues that long-standing federal policies, maintained across multiple administrations, have created the conditions for the massive and sustained spread of avian influenza.

The organization asserts that the federal government and the poultry industry have prioritized profits over public health by allowing the operation of crowded intensive animal feeding facilities, resisting mandatory HPAI testing protocols, and refusing to implement vaccination programs for poultry, despite their effectiveness in other countries.