Crime in San Francisco is down. Trump can still send troops

The possibility that President Donald Trump will deploy National Guard troops to San Francisco as part of a nationwide crackdown on crime is growing, but the latest crime data does not support his claim.

During an interview on the Fox News show earlier this week, Trump said he did next look at san francisco to send in the National Guard, adding that it had “undisputed authority” to do so under the Insurrection Act. So far, Trump has deployed units in Los Angeles, Chicago, Portland, Washington, D.C. and other Democratic-leaning cities, though he has not used the Sedition Act to do so.

California state and city leaders oppose Trump’s plan: Gov. Gavin Newsom told reporters Wednesday he would file a lawsuit “within a nanosecond” if Trump deploys troops, and San Francisco Mayor Daniel Lurie said “it won’t do anything to… make our city safer.”

In an interview with CalMatters, San Francisco District Attorney Brooke Jenkins said crime in the city has fallen in “every single category.” She has questioned the National Guard’s effectiveness in curbing crime because its troops cannot make arrests or investigate crimes.

Crime data from the San Francisco Police Department show that overall crime rates have dropped by more than 26% so far in 2025, and rates have dropped across the board except for sex-trafficking.

Jenkins said her main concern is that “inhumane” immigration enforcement could serve as a precursor to Trump sending in the National Guard. On Wednesday, the Trump administration sent federal immigration agents to a nearby Coast Guard base in the Bay Area, according to San Francisco Chroniclewhere they are allegedly preparing an enforcement check.

• Jenkins: “There should be civil unrest in San Francisco, and what we know and have seen is that US Customs, Border Control and ICE are deploying first in a way that creates chaos and provokes arrests.”

Whether or not crime is falling in a city depends on a variety of factors—such as what type of crime is being measured, in which regions, and over what period of time. But San Francisco is experiencing “some of the lowest crime numbers” in at least a decade, said Magnus Lofström, criminal justice policy director and senior fellow at the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California.

Using data from the California Department of Justice, Lofstrom said that in the last quarter of 2024, violent crimes were down 20 percent compared to the last quarter of 2023, and property crimes were down 18 percent. However, shoplifting increased during the same period.

Lofstrom also said that while he suspects the presence of uniformed personnel, such as police officers, acts as a “crime deterrent in the short term,” it’s unclear whether the effect of National Guard troops in San Francisco “could erode trust in law enforcement and worsen community relations.”

Lofstrom acknowledged that whether someone is a personal victim of a crime affects him perception also on crime rates.

• Lofstrom: “There is visible evidence of social problems, homelessness and drug use, for example. These raise public safety concerns. … These are factors that contribute to the perception of higher crime or an increase in crime, even though the data may point to an improvement.”

More about the National Guard: California Attorney General Rob Bonta said Trump is deploying troops to “target those people who don’t support him” in an interview with CalMatters’ Mikhail Zinstein on Wednesday. Read more on what Bonta had to say about the state’s efforts to stop Trump’s use of the California National Guard.