Even if Prop. 50 pass, Democrats still need to win races

from Jim NewtonCalMatters

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As voters weigh Proposition 50, which will appear on next month’s ballot, the debate surrounding the measure is complicated by a common concern and a common misconception: the concern that the proposed redistricting moves California away from the hard-won fairness of congressional boundary-drawing. The misconception is that this is a simple giveaway to Democrats.

For some supporters of electoral reform, it’s hard to feel good Proposition 50. After all, he unraveled independent commission approach to drawing district boundaries, which California voters created in 2008 and expanded in 2010. This method is favored by many election experts, who consider it fairer and less political than having politicians choose their constituents.

Californians are rightly proud of their independent commission and its work, so it’s hard to give it up — even temporarily. Prop. 50 would replaced the current congressional map with one that created five new Democratic-majority districts. It will remain in place until the independent redistricting commission draws a new set based on the 2030 census, at which point California will resume its nonpartisan approach to the exercise.

Few people understand California redistricting better than Sara Sadhwania professor of politics at Pomona College and an ardent defender of election rules that protect the public vote. She supports independent redistribution both as a scholar and as a participant.

When she applied for a position on the California Citizens Redistricting Commission in 2020, she noted that the commission “has played an essential role in ensuring fair representation for all Californians by crafting district boundaries that meet the needs of diverse communities.”

But Sadhwani is concerned not only about protecting California’s system, but also about the broader implications of trying to rig next year’s presidential midterms Donald Trump and his Republican allies. Since Trump convinced Texas to break its line in Congress — Trump declared he had a “right” to those now bogus seats — California has had no choice but to respond, she argued.

“I’m a mother of three,” she told me last week. “I regularly tell my kids that two wrongs don’t make a right. However,” she added, “I also tell them that if a bully hits you, you can defend yourself.”

Which brings us to the misconception. Although commentators do it all the time, it’s not correct to say that new districts simply hand new seats to Democratic candidates. Rather, what it does is create more Democratic-majority districts.

Candidates for Congress still have work to do to gather voter support and secure office.

In some areas, of course, the districts are virtually unchanged. Los Angeles is one of them, simply because LA is extremely liberal. About 53 percent of registered voters in the city are Democrats, compared to 17 percent who identify as Republican. Any district boundary there will naturally result in a Democratic majority.

really just two counties south of Santa Barbara will significantly increase their Democratic representation: the 41st Congressional District, currently held by Rep. Ken Calvert, and the 48th District, currently held by Rep. Darrell Issa. In Calvert’s case, new frontiers would leave the district heavily tilted in favor of Democrats, who would enjoy a 20-point registration advantage. In Issa’s county, the Democratic registration advantage would be just four points, but it’s still a wide margin, as the county currently gives Republicans a 10-point margin.

“Votes are won, plain and simple. These districts work for Democrats, but they don’t guarantee victory.”

Sara Sadhwani, a member of the California Citizens’ Redistricting Commission and professor at Pomona College

What does this mean on the ground? In the case of the 41st, Democrats envision a change with Rep. Linda Sanchez, who lives in Whittier and currently represents the 38th Congressional District, to move to challenge Calvert, effectively pitting one incumbent against another and in a district that now favors Sanchez. Meanwhile, Los Angeles County Supervisor Hilda Solis, a big name in Democratic circles, has already announced his intention to run in the 38th if Prop. 50 pass, replaces Sanchez.

However, the challenge for Democrats is a little more pronounced in the 48th. Isa easily won re-election in 2024 and outperformed registration in his district, winning by 20 points when the Republican registration advantage was 10 points. So even taking away that advantage doesn’t guarantee that Democrats will hold the seat.

All of this is a reminder that simply drawing the district line is not enough for political victory. Democratic districts don’t necessarily add to Democratic seats, and it’s possible that Calvert or Issa — especially Issa — could be re-elected, even in a district that leans more heavily against Republicans.

It’s also worth noting that the same dynamic is at work, in reverse, in Texas, where better odds for Republican incumbents and candidates don’t guarantee them victory. Efforts to maximize Republican-majority districts may have spread the party’s loyalists too thin, a phenomenon that The Boise State University political scientist described as “manipulation.”

Again, Sadhwani emphasized that the real test of California’s efforts is not so much how districts are drawn, but how elections are decided.

“Votes are won, plain and simple,” she said. “These districts work in favor of Democrats, but they do not guarantee victory.”

If Proposition 50 passes, it will certainly complicate Trump’s efforts to target the midterms by changing the lines in Texas and elsewherebut it doesn’t guarantee that Democrats can repair the damage with their counterpunch in California. It will take candidates, organization, money and ultimately votes to make this happen.

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