Trump moved the 9th round court. What does this mean for abortion?

For decades, the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals has been a reliable bastion of liberal ideals, but that has changed under President Donald TrumpThe first term thanks to the 10 matches he made.

The court’s balance stands at 16-13 when he returns to office, and the margin between Democratic and Republican-appointed justices has not been this narrow in nearly three decades.

Democrats can breathe a small sigh of relief, but with this margin unlikely to change in the next four years — it would take a liberal judge dying or voluntarily retiring, the latter of which has a slim chance, to further shift the the court.

Yet Trump’s remake of the West Bank’s federal judiciary has already made its mark, including when it comes to abortion and reproductive health.

For example, in 2020, the 9th Circuit’s Administration Rule upheld a Trump Administration rule Speaking of abortion even if patients ask about it. The court had a 7-4 majority of conservatively appointed justices, including two named to the bench by Trump. The Biden administration eventually dismantled the rules, making the case moot, but the ruling put many reproductive rights advocates on edge.

California’s Democratic lawmakers took action Strengthening access to abortions Within the state, after the US Supreme Court eliminated federal abortion protections in its 2022 decision. DOBBS. State voters even passed a constitutional amendment guaranteeing the right to abortion.

But 9th circuit It covers more states than any other federal appeals court, and some of them favor very different policies than California. Idaho, with a Close to a general ban on abortionhas become a hotbed of litigation, and the 9th Circuit’s rulings could affect all nine states it oversees.

It’s never a foregone conclusion how the justices will rule, but the balance of the 9th Circuit is especially important as states file lawsuits to block policies signed by Trump on the first day of his second term.

“There’s a much greater chance, or a much greater risk, depending on which side you’re on, of getting a majority of conservative justices reviewing these panel decisions and setting the law for the entire circuit,” says John P. Collins, Associate Professor, George Washington University School of Law.

How Trump Changed the Court

Trump appointed 226 federal judges During his first term, he shifted the ideological balance of three appeals courts from majority Democratic appointees to majority Republican appointees. He was able to make so many appointments in part because congressional Republicans froze confirmation hearings at the end of President Barack Obama’s second term, leaving dozens of vacancies.

Former President Joe Biden appointed eight judges to the 9th Circuit, but none of them replaced conservative judges. Trump’s 10 appointments moved four seats on the appeals court.

“Trump has had a particularly significant impact on the 9th Circuit,” Collins said. “He was able to really bridge the partisan gulf on the court.”

Split decisions and rulings that sink liberal appeals have become more common for the appeals court, including those involving capital punishment, gun controlhomelessness and religious exemptions from non-discrimination rules. The odds of a case landing before a conservative majority of justices are much higher than in decades past.

When it comes to abortion, it matters, experts say, because the Dobbs ruling muddies the legal waters, overturning the 1973 Supreme Court decision that established the right to abortion, Roe v. Wade.

“Before Dobbs … even in more conservative appellate courts, you would have conservative justices who said, ‘I might want to rule a certain way, but I’m still constrained by Supreme Court precedent,'” said Zachary Baron, the center’s director. in Health Policy and Law at the O’Neill Institute at Georgetown Law.

Now, with no clear precedent and less reliably liberal appeal

“We’re dealing with a legal landscape that’s changing, and that probably means that justices are more likely to vote according to their predispositions,” said Arthur Hellman, professor emeritus at the University of Pittsburgh. “You expect a conservative judge to decide a case one way and a liberal judge to decide it another way.”

Hellman, a 9th Circuit scholar, reviewed nearly 30 years of 9th Circuit decisions and found that there was a a strong connection between the party of the appointing president and their ideology.

Numerous reproductive health cases are making their way through the lower courts or awaiting a final decision from the appeals court. Just last week, an Idaho health system sued to prevent the state from enforcing its abortion ban when it ran afoul of federal law requiring federally funded hospitals to provide emergency stabilization care. This law is known as the Emergency Medical Treatment and Labor Act or Emtala.

There are many pregnancy-related emergencies that may require a doctor to terminate the pregnancy to save the mother’s life or prevent her from suffering serious bodily harm, such as loss of fertility or organ damage. Idaho law allows abortion only in cases where the mother will die.

The lawsuit to block that law, which is now in a lower district court, is similar to a lawsuit filed by the U.S. Department of Justice two years ago that sought to stop Idaho from enforcing its ban. The Ninth Circuit heard oral arguments in December with a 6-5 conservative majority on its panel, with four of Trump’s appointees on the panel.

He has not yet issued a decision.

Liberals move cases to state courts

While Democratic appointees still hold the majority, Trump’s appointees will leave a broad legacy. They are some of the youngest judges in modern history and will not be eligible to retire for several decades.

People seeking to ban abortion nationwide are playing a long game with the court system, said Collins of George Washington University Law. Trump has appointed justices who are more likely to uphold the 150-year-old Comstock Act as a way to ban abortion pills or to agree with arguments that unborn fetuses have the same legal rights and status as humans, he said.

“They’ll start out as these fringe ideas, but when the same people beat that drum for 20, 30, 40 years, all of a sudden it starts to become a little bit more normal and before you know it, the cases that have been on the books for a while 50 years old, all of a sudden they flip,” Collins said

Others say cases seeking to protect reproductive rights have already moved from federal courts to state courts, where they have a better chance of success.

In the wake of Dobbs, states are becoming more creative in interpreting how their own constitutional provisions about “life and liberty and equal protection” may protect reproductive autonomy, said Diana Kasdan, Legal and Policy Director for the UCLA Center on Reproductive Health, Law, and politics.

“Over time, even federal courts can be swayed by a really persuasive and well-reasoned state court decision on a constitutional provision if there’s no Supreme Court precedent,” Kasdan said.

Still, Collins said the 9th Circuit will continue to be an important venue for any challenges that emerge to Trump’s second-term policies.

“The Ninth Circuit maintains its label as the most liberal circuit until proven otherwise by some other circuit stepping into the fray.”

Supported by the California Health Care Foundation (CHCF), which works to ensure that people have access to the care they need, when they need it, at a cost they can afford. Visit www.chcf.org to learn more.